Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Sunday brings bonus baseball with a trio of doubleheaders as the New York Yankees host the Texas Rangers, the New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Baltimore Orioles entertain the Kansas City Royals. Along with focusing on hitters from those teams, targeting their bullpens offers double the chance for a save. Chad Green (8% rostered in ESPN leagues) picked up a save for the Yankees earlier this week while the Rangers could turn to Joe Barlow (25% rostered). Jorge Lopez (32%) has been dominant closing games for the Orioles with Josh Staumont (8%) in play for the Royals.
Camden Yards also features the slate’s top streaming option with Bruce Zimmermann (15%) looking to build on his strong start to the season. The Orioles right-hander is deploying a similar pitch mix and velocity as previous seasons, but he’s exhibiting improved command and control. On Sunday, look for the trend to continue against a Royals offense averaging the second-fewest runs per game in the league.
Chris Paddack checks in as another streaming option, taking the hill for the host Minnesota Twins against the Oakland Athletics. Paddack’s 19.8% strikeout rate is below average, but he’s in a favorable spot facing a lineup average fanning at a 26.3% clip, the second highest in the league.
The Detroit Tigers are also whiffing at an elevated rate, rendering Jake Odorizzi another streaming option as the fantasy week comes to a close in head-to-head leagues. Odorizzi’s strikeout rate is pedestrian, but he’s coming off consecutive outing of six inning or more, key for points leagues since innings are an underappreciated element of the scoring. Odorizzi also has a solid opportunity for his third straight win.
The Twins are leading the AL Central despite some key injuries, though they received good news with the report Carlos Correa’s finger isn’t broken and is listed as day-to-day. In his stead, top prospect Royce Lewis (7%) was summoned, joining fellow freshman Jose Miranda (4%) who is filling the void with Miguel Sano sidelined. Lewis and Miranda both bat right-handed, so they’ll lack the platoon edge on Oakland’s Daulton Jefferies, but lately the right-hander has been generous to all hitters, yielding 11 runs over his past nine frames, putting Lewis and Miranda in play as pickups, and the Twins in the mix for a low-cost DFS stack.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Edward Olivares (KC, RF — 1%) vs. Nate Karns
Aaron Hicks (NYY, CF — 7%) vs. Jon Gray
Michael A. Taylor (KC, CF — 1%) vs. Karns
Ramon Urias (BAL, 2B — 1%) vs. Daniel Lynch
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (NYY, SS — 17%) vs. Gray
Kyle Higashioka (NYY, C — 3%) vs. Gray
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 39%) vs. Zach Thompson
Mitch Garver (TEX, C — 29%) at Jordan Montgomery
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 36%) at Chris Flexen
Nicky Lopez (KC, SS — 9%) vs. Karns
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 64%) at Carlos Rodon
Tyler O’Neill (STL, LF — 90%) at Rodon
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 63%) at Charlie Morton
Franmil Reyes (CLE, DH — 70%) vs. Alek Manoah
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 69%) vs. Manoah
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 56%) vs. Trevor Rogers
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 68%) at Zac Gallen
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 74%) vs. Aaron Ashby
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 74%) vs. Walker Buehler
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 73%) vs. Ashby