Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Sunday’s slate features 16 games, with a doubleheader at Coors Field between the Colorado Rockies and Seattle Mariners. The rule of thumb is reserving all starters in Coors Field. Granted, in head-to-head leagues, need is the deciding factor, especially on Sunday. If you have a comfortable lead, you’re sitting George Kirby. If you’re behind and are not going to win without a few more points, you’re starting Emerson Hancock.

What if the decision isn’t based on need. You play in a weekly league, and it’s the middle of the season. One of your top pitchers has just one start, and it’s a road date with the Rockies. Do you start him?

Let’s crunch some numbers. Over the years, Coors Field has elevated runs by 40%. A pitcher with a neutral environment 4.00 ERA would sport a 5.60 mark if he pitched every game in Coors Field.

Putting this in fantasy perspective, a 3.30 ERA would land a fantasy team at or near the top of the category in mixed league rotisserie standings. Sure, it depends on the number of teams, but an ERA in that range is solid, regardless of format. If all those innings were recorded in Coors Field, the ERA bloats to 4.62, which places a team near the bottom of the category.

This only encompasses earned runs. Coors Field also inflates hits and walks, so a fantasy team’s WHIP also suffers.

Of course, we’re only considering one pitcher and the above example assumes all your pitchers work only in Coors Field.

There has been some chatter this season that the Rockies offense is so bad, it isn’t as detrimental to use a hurler in Colorado. Keeping in mind that wRC+ is park neutral while wOBA is the actual, non-corrected production, both are good proxies for run-scoring potential. The Rockies wRC+ is 81, the fourth lowest in MLB. Their wOBA is .312, the 16th highest. At home, their wRC+ is 94, the 11th lowest, but their wOBA is .354, the first best. Colorado averages 5.00 runs per game at home, the 10th most.

On paper, through the first three-plus weeks of the season, the Rockies have one of the weakest lineups in the league, but when they’re at home, they’re a top-10 unit. That’s the extent Coors Field influences production.

My approach remains the same in weekly rotisserie scoring. Unless it’s late in the season and I’m chasing wins and/or strikeouts, I’m sitting all my one-start pitchers, but I’ll deploy my better two-start arms with one of the outings in Coors Field.

This is intended to be a daily column, so let’s get you ready for Sunday, the final scoring day in head-to-head leagues.

• Action gets underway at 1:35 p.m. ET with four games, then another pair get started a few minutes later. The 7 p.m. ET ESPN Sunday night game has the Texas Rangers visiting the Atlanta Braves. However, the nightcap of the Mariners-Rockies twin bill is the final game on the docket with first pitch at 8:10 p.m. ET.

• One of the ploys in head-to-head leagues is having players from the late game, or in this case games, on reserve if needed to make up points. Of the pair, while neither is especially appealing, Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen (4.8% rostered in ESPN leagues) or Braves starter Darius Vines (.9%) are both better options than Rockies starter Peter Lambert of the aforementioned Hancock for the Mariners. Vines is ranked higher, so let’s dub him the “break glass in case of emergency” selection.

• On the other hand, all four starters in the doubleheader are right-handed, giving the left-handed contingent of both clubs a shot at playing two games. The Mariners have the more alluring candidates with J.P. Crawford (56.0% rostered) and Jorge Polanco (8.7%) leading the way. The Rockies will have to contend with George Kirby in the opener, but veterans Charlie Blackmon (10.6%) and Ryan McMahon (58.9%) enjoy the platoon edge.

• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

• Unfortunately, it’s a terrible card for streaming with the top ranked option being Nick Nastrini (0.6% rostered). Nastrini pitched well enough for the Chicago White Sox in his MLB debut to merit another start. He’s the fifth-highest listed pitcher on the docket, a rank driven by a high minor league strikeout rate. Nastrini will pitch the finale of a road series against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies sport a potent lineup as evidenced by knocking Garrett Crochet around on Friday night, but there is also elevated strikeout potential. Nastrini is a ratio risk in rotisserie formats, but he’s in play for those wanting strikeouts or in points formats.

• Martin Perez (16.9%) follows Nastrini in terms of streamers, with the Pittsburgh Pirates entertaining the Boston Red Sox. Splits facing left-handers are always sketchy because the sample size takes longer to become significant, so don’t trust Perez solely because he’s facing a lineup fanning at a 29.6% clip against lefties. The source of the confidence should be Boston’s depleted offense with Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill sidelined and the bulk of the Red Sox better bats are left-handed, such as Jarren Duran, Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida.

It’s not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Jorge Polanco (SEA, 2B — 9%) at Peter Lambert and Cal Quantrill

Mitch Haniger (SEA, LF — 12%) at Lambert and Quantrill

Mitch Garver (SEA, C — 15%) at Lambert and Quantrill

Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 11%) vs. and George Kirby

Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS — 21%) vs. Brooks Pounders and Kirby

Elias Diaz (COL, C — 10%) vs. Pounders and Kirby

Jonatan Clase (SEA, CF — 3%) at Lambert and Quantrill

Luke Raley (SEA, RF — 1%) at Lambert and Quantrill

Elehuris Montero (COL, 1B — 0%) vs. Pounders and Kirby

Josh Rojas (SEA, 2B — 0%) at Lambert and Quantrill

Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C — 72%) at Jordan Hicks

Luis Campusano (SD, C — 54%) vs. Chris Bassitt