Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

It’s another early Sunday, especially for left coasters with an 11:35 a.m. ET start in Cleveland with the Guardians and rookie Tanner Bibee hosting Patrick Sandoval and the Angels. The Cardinals and Red Sox wrap up the weekend in the ESPN Sunday night affair with Miles Mikolas and Corey Kluber taking the hill.

Sunday marks the return of Max Scherzer after he missed his last start with neck spasms. Between the injury and his 10-game suspension, Scherzer has only started twice since April 10, accruing just 6⅓ combined innings. Last time out, he was hit hard by the Tigers, yielding six runs on eight hits. Even so, with a matchup against the Nationals on the docket, Scherzer is a no-brainer for fantasy purposes. However, with such a limited recent workload, the Mets might not push Scherzer to go deep into the game, so reaching strikeout props could be too much to ask.

Andrew Heaney (31% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the highest ranked streamer on the card. Heaney has registered a quality start in three of his past four outings, but he’s surrendered six long balls over his past three games. On Sunday, Heaney faces an Oakland lineup averaging the fourth fewest runs per game in MLB, but it has some pop with the 13th highest home run rate. There is some risk, but if Heaney can keep the ball in the yard, he’s in good shape to add another quality start to his ledger.

In general, Sunday isn’t ideal for making up points by streaming pitchers as most of the available starters are tasked with tough matchups. If you trust good pitching to beat good hitting, Zach Eflin (50.3%) is your man. The Rays right-hander is coming off his worst outing this season and will face the Yankees in the Bronx, but he’s posted a 2.91 ERA with 35 punchouts to only four free passes in 34 stanzas.

Joey Wentz (0.4%) is a sneaky spot starter for Detroit against the Mariners in Comerica Park. Seattle’s offense, especially facing southpaws, has been quiet. The Mariners rank 27th in wOBA versus left-handers, with the fourth highest strikeout rate. Wentz’s 6.09 ERA is pegged a run too high by its estimators, but even that is well above average. Wentz is best suited for teams in head-to-head leagues looking to max out their 12 weekly starts and require some lightning in a bottle to catch up.

Starting a pitcher like Aaron Nola in Coors Field is always a hard decision. Taking the cautious route is usually the best play, but with Sunday being the last day of the head-to-head scoring week, taking chances is often required. Adding to the conundrum is Nola hasn’t been as sharp as usual, though he did limit a potent Toronto lineup to just two runs in six frames in his last effort. Granular stats like facing a specific team on the road are usually too small a sample to be actionable, but when the road is in Colorado, it can be telling. To that end, Nola has started four games in Coors field, spanning 25 innings. His ERA is a respectable 3.96 with a 1.28 WHIP and 24 strikeouts. Unless you’re in a very tight ERA or WHIP race in category head-to-head leagues, Nola can be trusted.

Aside from Coors Field, another place to look for hitters on Sunday is in Milwaukee, with the Brewers facing Jordan Lyles. Lyles, like most of the Royals pitching has struggled, though to his credit, he posted a complete game last time out, albeit in a loss. The veteran right-hander has surrendered multiple homers in six of his eight starts. Jesse Winker (11.0%), Brian Anderson (27.3%), William Contreras (41.1%), Joey Wiemer (1.2%) and Brice Turang (3.5%) all have the pop to take advantage.

Looking to start a free fantasy baseball league? Come and join the fun of ESPN’s brand new standard scoring format.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

By Todd Zola

•For the second day in a row, Kenley Jansen blew a save on Saturday. While his defense let him down both times, he was also called for three clock violations yesterday. The combined 39 pitches should render him a spectator for tonight’s ESPN Sunday night affair. John Schreiber hasn’t worked in over a week, so he could be asked for a mukti-inning save if the situation warrants.

Felix Bautista has also pitched on each of the past two days, but he converted his save chances by fanning the side both times. However, the 31 pitches probably mean he’s unavailable today. Yennier Cano has already chipped in with three saves and could be looking at a fourth today. Bryan Baker is also well rested and could close, though with eight holds he’s in play regardless.

Devin Williams makes the list by virtue of a 10-pitch save yesterday, but he’s been used on consecutive days with fewer pitches thrown in the first game, so replacing him is a risk. That said, Peter Strzelecki is next in line, and since he has nine holds, Strzelecki could still be useful on the last day of the head-to-head scoring period.

David Robertson did not pitch yesterday, but after using 40 pitches in his 1 2/3 inning effort on Friday night, he could use another day of rest. Adam Ottavino hasn’t pitched since Friday, so the Mets’ co-closer could get the call with Drew Smith being another candidate. Acquiring Ottavino or Smith also makes sense since the Mets check in as the club with the best chance to collect wins over the next three days.

The Blue Jays also have a good chance of taking home some wins in the coming days as the pitching matchups in their early week series with the Yankees are all in their favor. Jordan Romano logged his 10th save yesterday, but like Devin Williams, there is precedent for Romano being used two days in a row if he’s needed against the Braves this afternoon. Erik Swanson has nine holds, so he’s in play as someone to pick up and keep, at least through Monday’s slightly abbreviated schedule.

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player’s ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher’s pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher’s total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher’s days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 7%) at Brandon Pfaadt

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 23%) at Corey Kluber

LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF — 12%) at Brandon Pfaadt

Jesse Winker (MIL, LF — 11%) vs. Jordan Lyles

Miguel Vargas (LAD, 1B — 25%) vs. Ryan Weathers

Jorge Soler (MIA, LF — 10%) vs. Luke Weaver

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 20%) vs. Miles Mikolas

Brian Anderson (MIL, 3B — 27%) vs. Jordan Lyles

Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 21%) vs. Aaron Nola

Edmundo Sosa (PHI, SS — 1%) at Kyle Freeland

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 52%) at Clarke Schmidt

Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 65%) vs. Patrick Sandoval