Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Sunday’s slate covers the gamut of starting options, from two of the best in Max Scherzer and Corbin Burnes to a struggling Reiver Sanmartin taking the hill in Coors Field. Included are a couple of solid streaming candidates, beginning with Alex Cobb (44% rostered in ESPN leagues) and his San Francisco Giants hosting the Washington Nationals. He’s coming off the IL on Sunday, after having fanned 14 (with two walks) in 9⅓ innings before being sidelined with a groin issue.
Next up is Nick Pivetta (23% rostered), getting the call for the Boston Red Sox as they wrap up a series in Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles. Pivetta has been uncharacteristically wild to begin the season, walking 13 batters over his 16⅓ innings. However, he’s facing an offense that is currently striking out at the second-highest clip in MLB. The Orioles also have the second-lowest HR rate in baseball.
Triston McKenzie (59%) may be available in shallower leagues and is worth checking out, given a matchup against an Oakland Athletics club with the highest strikeout rate. They’re also not very patient, which may help keep McKenzie’s pitch count low so that he might eclipse his strikeout prop while also serving as a cost-effective DFS hurler.
Jordan Hicks can reach triple-digits with his fastball, but he’s still struggling with control as he transitions from the bullpen, not to mention that he will likely be on a pitch count after having been forced to exit last Tuesday’s start after just three frames due to taking a comebacker off the wrist. The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen is solid, but that’s due to a strong back end, not any middle-innings options. The Arizona Diamondbacks bats are therefore an under-the-radar source for streamers, not to mention a contrarian stack to the likely slugfest in Coors Field. David Peralta (14%), Seth Beer (6%) and Pavin Smith (5%) are the best targets.
Low-scoring games in LoanDepot Park are nothing new. That said, the Miami Marlins are “middle of the pack” in terms of runs over the first month of the season while the visiting Seattle Mariners check in as the fifth-highest scoring team in the league over the season’s first month. That said, with two of the better young arms on the hill — Sandy Alcantara for the hosts, being opposed by Logan Gilbert — scoring should be minimal, especially since both teams have stingy bullpens. While it’s usually fun to root for runs, here is an instance it could pay to back limited scoring.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 34%) at Kyle Freeland
Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 2%) at Freeland
Taylor Ward (LAA, RF — 41%) at Dallas Keuchel
Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF — 5%) at Freeland
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 7%) at Freeland
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 2%) vs. Sanmartin
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 22%) vs. Chris Paddack
Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3B — 9%) at Freeland
Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF — 49%) vs. Zach Eflin
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 40%) vs. Marcus Stroman
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 72%) at Burnes
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C — 99%) at Scherzer
Rhys Hoskins (PHI, 1B — 90%) at Scherzer
Willson Contreras (CHC, C — 94%) at Burnes
Frank Schwindel (CHC, 1B — 69%) at Burnes
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 61%) at Alcantara
Joey Gallo (NYY, LF — 68%) at Daniel Lynch
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 60%) vs. Max Fried
Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 55%) at Walker Buehler
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF — 100%) at Scherzer