Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games

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Tanner Bibee’s streak of run prevention should continue through his next matchup against the Angels. (0:52)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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West coasters rejoice! Sunday’s action begins at a more palatable 1:05 PM ET this week. The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies get things started in Citizens Bank Park. Both squads are in the NL Wild Card picture with the Phillies in the driver’s seat for the first spot and the Marlins in the mix with five other clubs for the other two. Ranger Suarez (23.6% rostered) will be making his second start after missing three weeks with a sore hamstring. In his return, Suarez threw 75 pitches, so he should be able to ramp up to his typical 90-100 tosses. Suarez is fanning more and walking fewer than last season, but he’s been victimized by a high .331 BABIP, which is artificially driving his WHIP up. Fortunately, a high 78.3% left on base mark is keeping Suarez’s ERA in check. The Marlins don’t strike out a lot facing lefties, but they’re not nearly as potent with Jorge Soler on the IL with an oblique strain. On a card devoid of many solid streaming options, Suarez is in play.

Bryce Miller (37.8%) is the first of a couple of streaming-quality hurlers facing a tough lineup. On Sunday, the Seattle Mariners wrap up a series in Tropicana Feld with the Tampa Bay Rays. Both clubs are competing for their respective division crowns as well as being in the thick of the AL Wild Card chase. Miller is four outs shy from matching last season’s combined innings, so the 25-year-old right-hander will soon be in uncharted waters. His velocity from his last start is in line with his yearly mark, so there isn’t an indication the workload is affecting his performance. It’s not an ideal matchup, but Miller has recorded a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last six outings, with just one homer allowed in 32 frames. If you keep the Rays in the yard, you can keep their offense under control.

Grayson Rodriguez (36.4%) is another rookie tasked with facing a dangerous lineup on the road when the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox close their weekend series in Fenway Park. After posting a 7.85 ERA in seven starts to begin his career, Rodriguez was sent to Triple-A for more seasoning. Since returning after the All-Star break, Rodriguez has recorded a 2.85 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, supported with 48 strikeouts and just 16 walks in 53 2/3 innings. He’s surrendered only three long balls in that span. For the season, the Red Sox have the sixth highest wOBA facing righties, but they’ve proven vulnerable to strong pitching. Trusting an opposing pitcher in Fenway Park is a risk, but Rodriguez has six quality starts in the second half, including efforts against the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and New York Yankees.

Do you feel lucky? The Detroit Tigers are promoting Sawyer Gipson-Long where he’ll debut as the starter for a home date with the Chicago White Sox. Gipson-Long isn’t a highly regarded prospect, but he’s earned an audition by punching out a combined 126 batters in 99 2/3 innings at Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo. Gipson-Long’s combined 29 walks are reasonable, but 20 homers allowed in 20 games (19 starts) ballooned his minor league ERA to 4.33 this season. Perhaps by design, Gipson-Long draws the offense with the league’s lowest wOBA facing right-handers. The White Sox also sport the lowest walk rate facing righties, with a below average home run rate, so the framework is there for Gipson-Long to open his career on a high note.

Royce Lewis (33.6%) is going to be a very intriguing player in 2024 drafts. He’s played what amounts to one-third of a season and has 11 homers and four steals to go along with his .320 batting average. While it would be optimistic to expect Lewis to maintain that average over a full season, the power and speed numbers are plausible. Of course, staying healthy for a full season is also a big ask. However, Lewis is healthy now and has a 1.130 OPS with two swipes in September.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 23%) vs. Jesse Scholtens

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 27%) at Hunter Greene

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B — 50%) vs. Tylor Megill

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 7%) vs. Megill

Mitch Garver (TEX, DH — 16%) vs. Luis Medina

Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 20%) vs. Miles Mikolas

David Peralta (LAD, LF — 1%) at Trevor Williams

Ryan O’Hearn (BAL, 1B — 4%) at Brayan Bello

Triston Casas (BOS, 1B — 44%) vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 5%) vs. Peter Lambert

Bryson Stott (PHI, SS — 73%) vs. Jesus Luzardo

Ty France (SEA, 1B — 63%) at Zach Eflin