Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Sunday’s action gets an early 12:05 p.m. ET start with the Detroit Tigers hosting the San Diego Padres. The slate finishes with the Boston Red Sox entertaining the New York Mets in the ESPN Sunday night affair. In between there are 13 afternoon contests. Unfortunately, it’s not ideal for those looking to make up points via streaming pitchers. The hurlers are available, but the matchups aren’t especially favorable.

For example, the top-ranked probable pitcher available in more than half of ESPN leagues is Bryan Woo (16.8% rostered). Woo entered the break with a 3.63 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to begin his career, but he struggled in his first start since teams returned, allowing six runs in 3 1/3 innings to the Minnesota Twins. Woo will be at home, but he’ll face the Toronto Blue Jays. On paper, it’s not a terrible matchup facing a just above league average lineup on the road facing righties, but it’s tough to trust winning or losing a head-to-head matchup hoping a rookie can navigate a lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and friends.

Next on the list is Taj Bradley (16.4%) who has also pitched well at times but faces a challenging lineup as the Tampa Bat Rays continue to battle the Baltimore Orioles for supremacy in the AL East. Bradley opened the second half by limiting the Texas Rangers to two runs over five frames, fanning nine. For the season, the rookie’s 30.6% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate are excellent, but 12 homers allowed in 66 1/3 innings has inflated his ERA. Working in Bradley’s favor is the game will be at home in Tropicana Field, a venue known to suppress power. Plus, the Orioles are just a tick above league average with respect to home run rate facing right-handers.

Continuing the theme of rookie pitchers tasked with a tough opponent, Los Angeles Dodgers freshman Emmet Sheehan (10.2%) is next on the list, despite drawing a Rangers lineup averaging the most runs per game in MLB. That said, regression is beginning to set in as the Rangers batting average with runners in scoring position was unsustainably high. For the last month, Texas is down to the 10th most runs per game, which is still well above average. Sheehan and the Dodgers will be at home, and the Rangers will be without Corey Seager who was placed on the IL Saturday after spraining his thumb on a slide Friday night. Consider this a “break glass in case of emergency” option.

One of the tricks in head-to-head leagues is stashing one of the Sunday night starters in case ground still needs to be made up. Carlos Carrasco (5.4%) will take the Fenway Park hill for the visitors with the Red Sox deploying an opener before passing the baton to Nick Pivetta (8.8%). Neither Carrasco nor Pivetta re ranked high, but Pivetta has taken well to the primary pitcher role, which has not yet been captured by the rankings. In fact, Pivetta could be a better pickup than the three rookies already discussed. Granted, both efforts were against Oakland, but Pivetta has fanned 21 over his prior 11 innings. Extending this to four appearances, Pivetta has punched out 34 over his previous 18 1/3 frames.

Some batters boosted by the platoon edge on Sunday include Jonny DeLuca (0.1%) facing Martin Perez, Eddie Rosario (10.9%) facing Julio Teheran along with both Wilmer Flores (18.8%) and Austin Slater (0.2%) stepping in against MacKenzie Gore.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 23%) vs. Carlos Carrasco

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 16%) at Jameson Taillon

Triston Casas (BOS, 1B — 29%) vs. Carrasco

Billy McKinney (NYY, RF — 0%) vs. Jordan Lyles

Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 45%) vs. Jordan Montgomery

Adam Duvall (BOS, CF — 24%) vs. Carrasco

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF — 20%) at Tyler Anderson

Francisco Alvarez (NYM, DH — 33%) at Brennan Bernardino

Franchy Cordero (NYY, 1B — 0%) vs. Lyles

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 53%) vs. Tyler Wells

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 54%) at Bryan Woo

Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B — 51%) vs. Wells