Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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The early game returns to the final Sunday of the regular season with the Minnesota Twins wrapping up a series with the Detroit Tigers at 12:10 PM ET in Comerica Park. Simeon Woods Richardson (Less than 1% rostered in ESPN leagues) is expected to make his MLB debut. The Twins acquired him last summer in the deal sending Jose Berrios to Toronto. Woods Richardson has posted a 2.21 ERA and .86 over seven starts, fanning 38 in 36 2/3 innings since being promoted to Triple-A St. Paul. He was exceptional in September, with a 1.29 ERA and .79 WHIP with 26 punch outs in 28 frames. With the tame Tigers offense as his inaugural opponent, Woods Richardson is in play as a streamer.
On the flip side, Tigers starter Joey Wentz (2%) quietly also pitched well in September, registering a 2.11 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, albeit with a tempered 18 whiffs in 21 1/3 stanzas. Still, facing a Twins lineup struggling over the second half against southpaws, Wentz is another option to give a fantasy spot start.
Unfortunately, there isn’t much else by way of viable streaming candidates. It’s a good thing most fantasy head-to-head finals roll in the last three days, so team managers can focus elsewhere on Sunday and wait for the final series to fortify pitching. If forced to select another option, Los Angeles Angels southpaw Tucker Davidson (1%) faces a middling Texas Rangers lineup. Just beware, Davidson has mixed a few solid outings with several clunkers.
We’re at the point of the season where playoff-bound starting pitchers with nothing to play for may hit the showers earlier then usual. An example is Cleveland Guardians righty Shane Bieber, earmarked to open the Wild Card series on Friday, on standard four-days rest. However, the AL Central champs will probably limit Bieber to five innings, if that. He’s safe to use in fantasy, but an early departure takes him out of DFS consideration and tilts strikeout props to the under.
Starting pitchers taking the hill on Saturday are likely done for the regular season. In redraft formats, there is no reason to carry them, unless they’re on the no-drop list. Stocking up on dominant relievers is a great way to take advantage of the open spots. The optimal bullpens to target are the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. Both clubs have a doubleheader on Tuesday, so they have four games. Seattle is still vying for the top Wild Card seed and they draw a weak Tigers team at home. Meanwhile, the Yankees will probably limit starter innings, availing more to their relievers. Everyone in both bullpens except for Clay Holmes in the Bronx is available in more than half of ESPN leagues, and Holmes is nursing a shoulder injury and won’t return until the playoffs. The top targets for Seattle are Paul Sewald, Andres Munoz, Diego Castillo and Erik Swanson. The premier options for the Yankees are Scott Effross and Lou Trivino.
Here is Sunday’s six-pack of solid sticks for those fantasy managers thirsting for hitting. The Philadelphia Phillies Alec Bohm (55%) and Matt Vierling (1%) are slated to enjoy the platoon edge on Patrick Corbin. Jose Miranda (33%) has cooled a bit, but his hard-hit metrics have been impressive, warranting a plug and play against Wentz. For those not desperate enough to use Davidson in their rotation, Josh Jung and (7%) Bubba Thompson (6%) should be productive with the platoon edge. Lastly, Zach McKinstry (1%) is in a good spot leading off against Chase Anderson.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Luis Rengifo (LAA, SS — 26%) vs. Spencer Howard
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 33%) at Joey Wentz
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 43%) vs. Corey Kluber
Gio Urshela (MIN, 3B — 26%) at Wentz
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 19%) at Luis Garcia
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF — 1%) vs. Zach Davies
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE, RF — 31%) vs. Max Castillo
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 13%) vs. Roansy Contreras
Nico Hoerner (CHC, 2B — 31%) vs. Chase Anderson
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 49%) at Tyler Anderson
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 76%) at Luis Severino
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 85%) at Severino
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 53%) at Blake Snell
Joey Meneses (WSH, 1B — 51%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Nelson Cruz (WSH, DH — 54%) vs. Wheeler
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 72%) at Charlie Morton
Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 52%) at Kevin Gausman
Salvador Perez (KC, C — 94%) at Shane Bieber
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 69%) vs. Gearrin
J.D. Martinez (BOS, LF — 95%) at Gausman