Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Sunday marks the first time this season baseball has competition with the NFL underway. One of the repercussions is there is no longer an early game, with the slate kicking off at 1:05 PM ET in Camden Yards and Citizens Bank Park. The script has been flipped in the AL East matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles as the Orioles are battling for a wild card while the Red Sox are trying to play spoiler. The pitching exemplifies this perfectly as the Orioles offense is no longer a pushover while streaming against the Red Sox is no longer daunting. As such, Kyle Bradish (6% rostered in ESPN leagues) is at least as good of a streamer as Rich Hill (5%) even if Hill is ranked higher. Both are risky, and should only be deployed in a desperate scenario, though Bradish is an intriguing DFS play.
Don’t fret, there are a few safer streamers, which is always welcome on the final day of the scoring period. Topping the list is Miami Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo facing the New York Mets in South Beach. Over the past month, the Mets have recorded the second lowest wOBA against lefties. One reason is Darin Ruf, acquired at the trade deadline specifically to help in this scenario, has posted a .156/.200/.222 line in a Mets uniform. In addition, Starling Marte has been slowed by a finger injury and may miss the matchup. Meanwhile, Luzardo has a 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP since returning from the IL on August, fanning 41 in 43 1/3 innings.
Jordan Montgomery has garnered a lot of praise since being acquired by the St. Louis Cardinals to fortify their playoff run, overshadowing Jose Quintana. Quintana was also added to the trade deadline. He hasn’t been as effective as Montgomery, but he’s keeping the ball in the yard, thus giving the Redbirds a chance to win when he’s on the hill. On Sunday, Quintana will toe a familiar rubber as the Cardinals wrap up a series in Pittsburgh, where Quintana toiled before the Pirates dealt him to St. Louis. Pittsburgh’s lineup has registered the fifth worst wOBA against lefties for the last month, fanning a generous 28% of the time.
Cole Irvin (29%) has been one of the better streaming options for most of the season, but on Sunday he squares off with a Chicago White Sox offense crushing lefty pitching. Fantasy teams embroiled in a tight ratio battle should consider benching Irvin.
Zac Gallen will be putting his 41 1/3 scoreless innings streak on the line in Colorado. Coors Field embellishes runs by over 30%, but Gallen needs just two outs to tie the Diamondbacks record of 42 scoreless frames set by Brandon Webb. Continuing his march towards Orel Hershiser’s MLB leading mark of 59 innings is in jeopardy. Even so, the way he’s pitching, how can you not start Gallen? A much easier decision is picking on Colorado’s Ryan Feltner with Jake McCarthy (35%), Corbin Carroll (18%) and Alek Thomas (6%), a trio of fledgling Diamondbacks stars, all enjoying the platoon edge.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jake McCarthy (ARI, CF — 30%) at Ryan Feltner
Corbin Carroll (ARI, CF — 17%) at Feltner
Seth Brown (OAK, RF — 11%) vs. Johnny Cueto
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 15%) vs. Tyler Alexander
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 6%) at Feltner
Brendan Donovan (STL, 3B — 19%) at Mitch Keller
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 42%) vs. Tucker Davidson
Nico Hoerner (CHC, 2B — 42%) vs. Wei-Chieh Huang
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 22%) at Cole Irvin
William Contreras (ATL, C — 36%) at Marco Gonzales
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 57%) at Joe Musgrove
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B — 70%) at Brandon Woodruff
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 88%) vs. Anthony Bass
Nelson Cruz (WSH, DH — 57%) at Aaron Nola
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 87%) at Musgrove
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B — 97%) vs. Andrew Heaney
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 60%) at Musgrove
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 65%) at Brady Singer
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 67%) vs. Jake Odorizzi
Jurickson Profar (SD, 1B — 87%) vs. Heaney