Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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The new FPTS column in the daily pitching chart is useful every day, but it will come in handy even more on Sundays when fantasy managers have one last chance to make up ground in points leagues. Similarly, the K category could be integral for those needing strikeouts in Head-to-Head category formats. For Sunday, Andrew Heaney (59% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the top streamer in 10-12 team leagues, with David Peterson (1% rostered) a viable option in deeper formats.
Those needing to make up points with hitting can look to Coors Field for help. Right-handed batters will be the focus as a pair of lefties will square off with Austin Gomber and the Colorado Rockies hosting Drew Smyly and the Chicago Cubs. For the Cubs, check out the availability of Patrick Wisdom (6%), Jonathan Villar (6%), Nick Madrigal (4%), Clint Frazier (1%) and Yan Gomes (1%). Meanwhile, Brendan Rodgers (50%), Connor Joe (47%), Elias Diaz (14%) and Garrett Hampson (1%) are in play for the home team.
Strikeout props are one of the best entry points for fantasy managers to dabble in betting. They’re included in almost every fantasy format, so they’re in the conscious of fantasy managers. On Sunday, Alek Manoah checks all the boxes. He fanned seven Yankees over six innings in his debut and now he draws an Athletics lineup whiffing at a 28% clip to start the season. With the potent Blue Jays offense facing rookie Adam Oller, Manoah and the Jays have an excellent chance at a win.
One of the early stories of the 2022 campaign is the quantity and quality of rookies making the opening day roster. Batters such as Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Spencer Torkelson have garnered most of the acclaim, but Mariners rookie right-hander Matt Brash (19%) posted an impressive debut, fanning six White Sox in 5 1/3 innings, albeit in a loss. Next up is a home tilt against the Houston Astros. This may seem daunting, but the Astros check in with the sixth-lowest wOBA in the league, rendering Brash an intriguing DFS play, as well as a fantasy streamer.
COVID-19 issues are still affecting rosters, with the New York Mets down a couple of key outfielders as Mark Canha and Brandon Nimmo missed Friday and Saturday’s contests. They may be back Sunday, but if not, Dominic Smith (3%) and Travis Jankowski (less than 1%) are in a good spot with the platoon edge against a weak arm with Humberto Castellanos taking the hill for the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. Robinson Cano (7%) is in play, while it’s also worth checking on the availability of Jeff McNeil (67%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF — 2%) at Gomber
Nico Hoerner (CHC, 2B — 4%) at Gomber
Sam Hilliard (COL, CF — 1%) vs. Smyly
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 39%) at Andrew Heaney
Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C — 14%) vs. Adam Oller
Jason Heyward (CHC, RF — 1%) at Gomber
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 44%) vs. Dakota Hudson
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 24%) at Vince Velasquez
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 77%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 87%) at Yu Darvish
Adam Duvall (ATL, RF — 52%) at Darvish
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF — 64%) vs. Nestor Cortes
Christian Vazquez (BOS, C — 53%) vs. Bailey Ober
Jarred Kelenic (SEA, CF — 54%) vs. Jose Urquidy
Avisail Garcia (MIA, RF — 63%) vs. Wheeler
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C — 85%) at David Peterson
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 67%) vs. Urquidy
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 58%) vs. Cortes