Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Sunday’s slate begins at 12:05 PM ET in Miami with the day’s marquee pitching matchup as Edward Cabrera puts his four-game scoreless streak on the line against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Normally, Cabrera (48% rostered in ESPN leagues) would be recommended as a streamer, but he faces the league most potent offense. On the other hand, the early start could benefit Cabrera as the Dodgers may rest some regulars, especially since they’ll be back at it with the Marlins on Monday. West coasters can’t sleep in, but it’s worth checking the Dodgers lineup, and if they give the day off to some of their better hitters, Cabrera would be a sneaky play. The 24-year-old right-hander has thrown 22 2/3 consecutive scoreless frames, fanning 28 in that span.
The Sunday streamers have been uninspiring for most of the season but, this time around, there are several intriguing options for those trying to make up ground. The top two candidates are Nick Lodolo (11%) and Ross Stripling (26%). Lodolo has experienced the usual peaks and valleys of a rookie season, marred by an unlucky .373 BABIP and a bloated 13% HR/FB mark. However, a 28% strikeout rate is encouraging. On Sunday, Lodolo faces a Washington Nationals lineup which has fanned 25% of the time against southpaws over the past month. Stripling is at home against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that is struggling, even with Mike Trout back.
Other potential spot-starters include Nick Pivetta (54%), Clarke Schmidt (2%) and Jakob Junis (9%). Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox wrap up a weekend series against a Tampa Bay Rays offense fanning at an uncharacteristically high 24% rate. Schmidt is filling in for the injured Nestor Cortes. Schmidt had a three-inning relief stint in his first appearance since returning to the Yankees, but had been starting for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, so he shouldn’t have any restrictions in Oakland against one of the weakest offenses in the league. Last season, the San Francisco Giants had “the golden touch” when it came to rejuvenating previously struggling arms. They haven’t been as effective this year, but Junis is exhibiting signs of a solid final quarter of the season. He’s better at home, but those in a pinch can deploy Junis in Minnesota, whose offense is now missing Byron Buxton after already having lost Miguel Sano, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach earlier in the season.
Given, the primary focus should be on Sunday’s lineup, but with a short slate on Monday, addressing both days is a great means of staying ahead of the competition. This is especially true for closers as several intriguing relievers can be picked up for Sunday then deployed on Monday. Leading the way are Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (51%) and Milwaukee’s Devin Williams (56%). The Red Sox and Brewers both play seven games this week against weaker rotations. Cincinnati’s Alexis Diaz (2%) and San Diego’s Luis Garcia (3%) are almost universally available for those in deeper leagues.
Let’s finish with some bats in a favorable spot. It’s not often the Tigers and Reds have been singled out for sticks, but Detroit faces Kohei Arihara while Cincinnati draws Patrick Corbin. Riley Greene (13%), Kerry Carpenter (1%) and Harold Castro (1%) are the prime candidates in Motown while Aristides Aquino (1%), Donovan Solano (2%), Nick Senzel (2%) are lined up well for the Reds. Noah Syndergaard has been pitching well for the Phillies, but he’s still vulnerable to the running game, making Pittsburgh’s Greg Allen (1%) the best candidate to swipe a bag or two.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 12%) at Jonathan Heasley
Danny Jansen (TOR, C — 4%) vs. Tucker Davidson
Gavin Sheets (CHW, DH — 2%) vs. Zach Davies
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 19%) vs. Davies
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 21%) at Pivetta
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF — 50%) vs. Corey Kluber
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 45%) vs. Roansy Contreras
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS — 28%) at Syndergaard
Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 50%) vs. Drew Hutchison
Evan Longoria (SF, 3B — 3%) at Aaron Sanchez
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 52%) at Max Scherzer
C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 96%) at Scherzer
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 72%) at Robbie Ray
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 82%) at Scherzer
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 64%) at Scherzer
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 71%) vs. Aaron Civale
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 60%) at Edward Cabrera
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 77%) at Justin Verlander
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 93%) at Scherzer
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF — 88%) at Verlander