Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Nola
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Fantasy Week 17 concludes on Sunday, leaving just three precious weeks to secure a playoff berth in standard ESPN Head-to-Head leagues. The early game takes place in Nationals Park at 12:05 PM ET with the San Diego Padres wrapping up a series with the Washington Nationals. The visitors now know they’ll be without Fernando Tatis Jr. for the duration of this season and part of next. Ha-Seong Kim’s playing time is now locked in for the rest of the season. He’s still only a streamer, but Kim should finish with double homers and steals. Kim (10% rostered in ESPN leagues) doesn’t enjoy the platoon edge on Paulo Espino, but he’s still an option against a hurler ranked only above the two starters scheduled for Coors Field.
The day’s top streaming candidate is Keegan Thompson as the Cubs and Reds finish a series started in Iowa. Since experiencing a rough patch in early June, Thompson has spun a 3.06 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 50 innings, fanning 47 while issuing only 13 walks and five homers. A road game in The Great American Ballpark isn’t ideal, but the Reds offense is only league average at home, while fanning 25% of the time with a righthander on the hill.
There are a handful of pitchers with roster levels below 50% who have been frequent streaming options. Unfortunately, the schedule-maker saddled each with a risky matchup. However, the last day of the head-to-head period may require rolling the dice. In order of our rankings, Braxton Garrett (15%) against the Braves, Cole Irvin (45%) facing the Astros, Brady Singer (33%) squaring off with the Dodgers, Aaron Ashby (12%) drawing the Cardinals and Michael Wacha (37%) closing the slate at home against the Yankees are all in the “break glass in case of emergency” class. That said, if possible, waiting for lineups avail an easier than normal matchup as clubs often use Sunday to give their stars a rest.
Given, stolen bases are far more integral to category leagues than points scoring, the need for speed elevates on Sunday as many head-to-head matchups may come down to a steal or two. There has been some shuffling of the best teams to target when aiming to pilfer points as clubs have been running wild on the Red Sox, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Athletics and Nationals since the break. Some speedy players to pick up on Sunday with matchups against these five batteries include Isiah Kiner-Falefa (15%), Josh Rojas (53%), Jake McCarthy (1%) and Ha-Seong Kim, mentioned earlier.
Let’s close with a nod to the deeper fantasy leagues by listing five batters with very low rostership, all enjoying the platoon edge for Sunday’s action. They are Albert Pujols (4%), Michael Chavis (2%), Elehuris Montero (2%), Joey Meneses (2%) and Terrin Vavra (<1%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 18%) vs. Tyler Alexander
Jordan Luplow (ARI, CF — 0%) at Ryan Feltner
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 42%) at Tucker Davidson
Emmanuel Rivera (ARI, 3B — 0%) at Ryan Feltner
Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF — 2%) at Justin Dunn
Jake McCarthy (ARI, CF — 1%) at Ryan Feltner
Carson Kelly (ARI, C — 13%) at Ryan Feltner
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 21%) vs. Tommy Henry
Nico Hoerner (CHC, 2B — 34%) at Justin Dunn
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 0%) vs. Keegan Thompson
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 58%) vs. Zack Wheeler
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 60%) vs. Zack Wheeler
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 72%) at Martin Perez
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 95%) vs. Shane Bieber
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 71%) at Lance Lynn
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 62%) at Braxton Garrett
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 61%) at Brady Singer
Jean Segura (PHI, 2B — 73%) at Chris Bassitt
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 79%) at Drew Rasmussen
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B — 91%) vs. Zack Wheeler