Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Sunday’s games commence with a 12:05 pm ET start in South Florida with the New York Mets wrapping up a weekend set with the Miami Marlins. Earlier in the week, the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland took advantage of the league’s weakest offense against southpaws with seven solid frames in loanDepot Park. David Peterson (10% rostered in ESPN leagues) is a similar lefty, putting him in the Sunday streaming mix.
The Oakland Athletics have scored the second-fewest runs in the league, while the Kansas City Royals check in with the fourth fewest. Deploying the opposing hurler against each has become Pavlovian for those adept at streaming pitchers. On Sunday, the clubs square off with Royals starter Brady Singer (11% rostered) having the edge on the Athletics’ James Kaprielian (2%). Singer is the better pitcher, and the Royals boast a better bullpen to protect a potential lead, rendering him the better streaming option. Consider Kaprielian only if you’re desperate to make up ground in a head-to-head league.
Two more arms to ponder for a spot start are Rich Hill (6%) and Beau Brieske (3%). Hill has been solid in June with a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, fanning 21 while issuing just four free passes in 21 frames. The Cleveland Guardians are a pesky lineup, but Hill is savvy and will not let Jose Ramirez beat him. Brieske yielded four runs in five stanzas to the Red Sox in his latest outing, but he posted a 2.22 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his previous four efforts, which included the potent Blue Jays and Yankees lineups. Brieske is in a great spot to rebound with a road date against the Diamondbacks on the Sunday docket.
While most playing in head-to-head leagues are looking to make up ground on Sunday, sometimes it’s necessary to play defense, especially with ERA and WHIP. There are three such decisions on Sunday’s ledger, with Jose Berrios the most challenging as he faces the Brewers in American Family Field. The Blue Jays’ righty appeared to be back on track, but surrendered three homers to the White Sox earlier this week. If it were any other day, Berrios would be recommended, but if protecting ratios is needed to a win, then he sits. Spencer Strider has the stuff to be matchup-proof, but he’s not there yet so he should be on the bench for Sunday’s date with the Dodgers. Lastly, Jack Flaherty has tossed only three innings in each of his first two starts, with spotty control in both, so he’s a sit, even facing the Cubs.
A couple of solid efforts in the Arizona Complex League do not erase Dallas Keuchel’s struggles over the last couple of seasons, but they’re enough to earn a start for the Diamondbacks against the Tigers. Spencer Torkelson (49% rostered), Jonathan Schoop (43%), Jeimer Candelario (42%), Robbie Grossman (36%), Riley Greene (31%), Miguel Cabrera (7%) and Eric Haase (2%) are all in play against the veteran lefty. Other batters to fortify your Sunday lineup are Jarren Duran (4%), Alex Kirilloff (25%), Gavin Sheets (1%), Jake Meyers (less than 1%) and Luis Garcia (9%).
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 26%) vs. Jordan Lyles
Kole Calhoun (TEX, RF — 6%) vs. Jackson Tetreault
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 41%) vs. Beau Brieske
Mitch Garver (TEX, C — 15%) vs. Tetreault
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 42%) vs. Tetreault
Gavin Sheets (CHW, DH — 1%) vs. Lyles
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 42%) vs. Rich Hill
Alex Kirilloff (MIN, 1B — 25%) vs. Ryan Feltner
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 29%) vs. Jose Berrios
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 31%) vs. Roansy Contreras
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS — 52%) at Shane McClanahan
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 81%) at Spencer Strider
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 50%) at Joe Ryan
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF — 94%) at McClanahan
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 92%) at Strider
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 53%) at Strider
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 63%) at Brady Singer
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 52%) at Ryan
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 82%) at McClanahan
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 62%) at Ryan