Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Sunday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Let’s begin Sunday’s “need to know” with noting the early game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals starts a half hour later than normal, with first pitch just after noon ET in Nationals Park. There are plenty of fantasy implications for the early birds, beginning with Phillies starter Zach Eflin checking enough boxes to be streamed on a day replete with good options. Elfin has tossed at least six frames on six occasions, four registering as quality starts. Homers have been a issue lately, but the Nationals sport the eighth-lowest home run rate against righthanders. With Corey Knebel relieved of his closing duties, Seranthony Dominguez (6%) and Brad Hand (4%) are both in play for saves. Phillies batters are also in play with Washington sending Jackson Tetreault to the bump. Alec Bohm (20%), Bryson Stott (7%) and Matt Vierling (1%) are the primary targets.
As mentioned, the slate is dotted with pitching for those needing a late boost in your head-to-head matchups. Consider the following: Brady Singer (12%), Adrian Houser (10%), Mike Minor (6%), Dane Dunning (9%), Alex Cobb (21%) and Merrill Kelly (46%). In points leagues, it’s best to target them in that order. In category formats, use the W% column if you need wins, K for strikeouts and ER and BR in conjunction with IP for ratio help.
Those waiting on the return of Dodgers southpaw Andrew Heaney (67%) from shoulder inflammation have a tough decision as he faces the pesky Cleveland Guardians. Heaney made three rehab starts, fanning 19 with one free pass in 12⅓ innings, allowing just one unearned run. Maybe the choice isn’t so hard after all; Heaney is good to go. On the other hand, Blake Snell in Colorado and Yusei Kikuchi at home against the Yankees are both big ratio risks.
There are several offenses to target, all facing inexperienced, or historically subpar hurlers. Joining the Phillies in this realm are the Boston Red Sox versus Andre Pallante, the Texas Rangers drawing Drew Hutchison, the Kansas City Royals stepping in against Jared Koenig and the Seattle Mariners facing Kenny Rosenberg, as the Los Angeles Angels are again giving Noah Syndergaard an extra day’s rest.
Jon Berti (12%) has seven steals over the past week, including two on Saturday. The Miami Marlins wrap up a series with the Mets, who do a good job controlling the running game, but that hasn’t stopped Berti (17-for-18 on the season). Dylan Moore (1%) has four pilfers this week as the Mariners and Rangers close out their weekend set. Moore is in a good spot to tack on another pilfer as the Angels have surrendered the second most stolen bases in MLB.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 34%) at Antonio Senzatela
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 49%) at Senzatela
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 11%) at Senzatela
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 50%) vs. Blake Snell
Austin Nola (SD, C — 10%) at Senzatela
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 30%) at Jordan Lyles
Manuel Margot (TB, RF — 42%) at Lyles
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 6%) vs. Snell
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 29%) at Mike Minor
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 38%) vs. Chris Archer
Santiago Espinal (TOR, 3B — 53%) vs. Luis Severino
Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B — 51%) at Cristian Javier
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 66%) vs. Sandy Alcantara
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 63%) vs. Brady Singer
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 90%) at Logan Gilbert
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 70%) vs. Alcantara
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 51%) at Andrew Heaney
Joey Gallo (NYY, LF — 54%) at Yusei Kikuchi
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 50%) vs. Dane Dunning
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF — 85%) vs. Severino