Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Even after firing six innings of one-run ball with 12 strikeouts against the Chicago Cubs in his last outing, Aaron Ashby is still rostered in only 27% of ESPN leagues. A 12-K performance is enough to get most fantasy managers excited, but there’s reason to believe he can enjoy continued success. In addition to a wipeout slider, Ashby has a sinker that touches 98 mph and a changeup that at times looks like his best swing-and-miss offering. The fact that he gets a Saturday matchup against the San Diego Padres, who put up the worst wRC+ (83) in the National League over the last month, is just a bonus. The 24-year-old southpaw is an easy pickup right now.
If Ashby isn’t available in your league, Roansy Contreras (9%) makes for a fine consolation prize. Through his first five big-league appearances (two starts), he sports a 2.55 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and a 9.2 K/9. While he had some control issues at Triple-A, walks haven’t been a problem over the course of his professional career. As with any Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher, wins will be hard to find. Still, Contreras can still provide value by missing bats and posting strong ratios at pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He’s a quality streamer against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a below-average offense against right-handed pitching.
Spencer Strider (13%) surrendered five runs in just 4 1/3 innings in his first major-league start on Monday, and now he heads to Coors Field for Saturday’s outing. Needless to say, he’s not necessarily a recommended streaming option this week. That said, the young right-hander might still be worth grabbing as a long-term option given his upside. In 24 1/3 innings as a reliever this season, Strider has a 2.22 ERA and a tantalizing 13.7 K/9 rate. He even showed that strikeout potential in his first start, fanning seven in 4 1/3 frames. Armed with a high-90s heater to go along with a slider and changeup (all pitches that get a significant number of whiffs), Strider has the repertoire to succeed as a starter. Skip this outing in Colorado, but keep him in mind next week for a potential start against Pittsburgh.
After disappointing in his rookie season, Andrew Vaughn (39%) is quietly putting together a productive sophomore campaign for the Chicago White Sox. The 24-year-old is batting .283/.336/.496 on the season — including .327/.359/.510 with two homers and nine RBI over his last 13 games. Those numbers are backed up by a 47.6% hard-hit rate that ranks him just outside the top 10% in baseball. Most importantly, Vaughn is now playing every day while frequently hitting second in the batting order. The former No. 3-overall pick deserves to be rostered in more leagues.
Consistent catcher production can be hard to find, but Alejandro Kirk (23%) is a backstop worth rostering, even in one-catcher leagues. Not only is he hitting .292/.369/.415 for the season, but he’s produced .338/.400/.563 with three bombs, 11 RBI and 16 runs in his last 22 games. Those 16 runs, in particular, shouldn’t be overlooked, as they’re second-most among catchers (behind only Willson Contreras) over the last 30 days. On Saturday, Kirk should get his licks in against Dylan Bundy, who allowed a bloated .338/.379/.538 line to opposing hitters in May.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B — 42%) vs. Packy Naughton
Nico Hoerner (CHC, 2B — 7%) vs. Naughton
Juan Yepez (STL, 1B — 21%) at Matt Swarmer
Christopher Morel (CHC, CF — 10%) vs. Naughton
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 46%) at Swarmer
Nick Madrigal (CHC, 2B — 29%) vs.Naughton
Yadier Molina (STL, C — 13%) at Swarmer
Albert Pujols (STL, 1B — 3%) at Swarmer
Brendan Donovan (STL, 3B — 4%) at Swarmer
Clint Frazier (CHC, LF — 1%) vs. Naughton
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 54%) at Luis Severino
Javier Baez (DET, SS — 74%) at Severino
Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B — 82%) at Ashby
Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B — 59%) at Drew Rasmussen
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 90%) at Zack Wheeler
Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 89%) vs. Cease
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 52%) vs. David Peterson
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 56%) at Pablo Lopez
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 66%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
Taylor Ward (LAA, RF — 94%) at Wheeler