Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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There’s some excitement in St. Louis with the expected promotion of a pair of top prospects. First up is Matthew Liberatore (1% rostered in ESPN leagues), who is set to make his MLB debut on Saturday. Liberatore, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2020 in the Randy Arozarena deal, is a former first-round pick who posted a 3.83 ERA, a 10.4 K/9, and a 2.7 BB/9 in seven starts at Triple-A. Trusting a rookie hurler in his debut always carries some risk, but he gets a soft landing spot against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that sports a bottom-five wRC+ (86) to go along with a 24.6% strikeout rate. Although the young southpaw isn’t a “must start” in standard 10-team leagues, his performance Saturday is definitely worth monitoring.
The Cardinals are also expected to call up Nolan Gorman (4% rostered) on Friday after the 22-year-old went on a HR binge at Triple-A, hammering 15 bombs in 34 games while hitting .308/.367/.677. The concern with Gorman is the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. He whiffed 34% of the time in Triple-A, which could result in a tough transition to the big leagues. Even so, the mammoth power is worth taking a chance on. Keep in mind, though, Gorman won’t have the platoon edge on Saturday, so he’s more of a long-term play than just a one-day streamer.
Opposing Liberatore is Jose Quintana (18%), who figures to be a popular streaming option given his early-season success. He has a 2.19 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over seven starts, which includes five consecutive outings of two-or-fewer earned runs allowed. The veteran left-hander could very well keep this up for a few more starts, but with career-worst fastball velocity (90.7 mph) and a 4.50 xERA that suggests his 2.19 ERA is somewhat fluky, there’s definite risk here. Proceed with caution against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that has been the best in baseball against left-handed pitching with a .367 wOBA and a 141 wRC+.
Alex Faedo (1%) has a mere three big-league starts under his belt, and so far, he’s made a positive impression, holding a 2.87 ERA over 15 2/3 frames. Although his strikeout numbers (note the 18.8% K-rate) haven’t shown up just yet, he displayed an ability to miss bats in the minors (10.5 K/9 in Double-A). Plus, Faedo’s slider, which has a 44.4% whiff rate, looks like it can be a put-away pitch for him. On Saturday, the 26-year-old righty draws a decent matchup versus the Cleveland Guardians, earning him streamer status in deeper formats. While the Guardians lineup has hit well this season, the team has been slowing down of late, illustrated by an 81 wRC+ over the last week.
Michael Lorenzen (24%) is coming off his best start of the season — a seven-inning, one-run performance against the Oakland Athletics. As luck would have it, he gets those same A’s once again on Saturday, putting him on the board as a worthwhile streaming option. Although Lorenzen is a low-upside arm given how much he’s pitching to contact, he’s showing improved control (2.8 BB/9). He’s also generating a ton of grounders (55%), and is limiting hard contact (25.2%). He shouldn’t have trouble holding down an Oakland offense that ranks dead-last in MLB in both wOBA (.265) and wRC+ (79).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 35%) at Kyle Bradish
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 34%) vs. Patrick Corbin
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 0%) at Bradish
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 41%) vs. Faedo
Jed Lowrie (OAK, 2B — 1%) at Lorenzen
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 6%) vs. Miles Mikolas
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 9%) vs. Chris Flexen
Seth Brown (OAK, RF — 3%) at Lorenzen
Juan Yepez (STL, 1B — 21%) at Quintana
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF — 15%) vs. Mikolas
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 51%) at Carlos Rodon
Jurickson Profar (SD, 1B — 67%) at Rodon
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 54%) at Justin Verlander
Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B — 85%) at Rodon
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 83%) at Aaron Nola
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 88%) at Alek Manoah
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 53%) vs. Joe Musgrove
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B — 95%) at Rodon
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 89%) vs. Joe Ryan
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 52%) at Nola