Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Saturday marks the first slate with all 30 teams on the schedule. There are nine afternoon affairs, with six contests under the lights. Action begins at 1:40 p.m. ET with the New York Mets hosting the Milwaukee Brewers with Luis Severino opposing DL Hall. The final game on the docket is the third of a four-game set with the Seattle Mariners hosting the Boston Red Sox at 9:40 p.m. ET featuring Logan Gilbert dueling Kutter Crawford. The marquee matchup is in the City of Brotherly Love with the Philadelphia Phillies sending Aaron Nola to the hill to face Max Fried and the Atlanta Braves.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has had to wait an extra day to try to make people forget about his disappointing debut in the Korea Series as Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pushed his second start to Saturday, explaining he wanted to give Yamamoto an extra day to ease the transition to the MLB schedule.

Doing so manifests an intriguing scenario. Yamamoto’s third start will be on five days of rest, which is the desired length. However, his fourth could be on either four or six days. How Roberts manages Yamamoto’s fourth start could be a harbinger of his plan for the season. As for Saturday, there is no reason to shy away from deploying the righty, even after he yielded five earned runs in one inning to the Padres in Seoul.

• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

Weather is always one of the early season stories. Most are aware of the scheduling repercussions that we’ve already encountered with a pair of Thursday openers getting pushed to Friday. Most fantasy managers in daily leagues know to look ahead and plan for possible postponements. Another sage strategy is to identify games with cooler temperatures. Anecdotally, some players don’t perform well when they’re bundled up. Scientifically, the ball doesn’t travel as far when the mercury is not rising.

The forecast calls for rain with temperatures in the 40s in the Windy City where Michael Soroka and the Chicago White Sox entertain Kenta Maeda and the Detroit Tigers. Given the threat of a postponement, this is a great spot for Maeda (50% rostered in ESPN leagues) to begin his tenure with the Tigers. Pitchers usually return to previous form the second year after Tommy John surgery and Maeda was very good last season. His 4.23 ERA was pegged as a little bit high by the estimators, and his 20.8 K-BB% was the second best of his career. Assuming they play, the conditions will be cold and clammy, setting up Maeda for a solid outing.

While it won’t be unreasonably cold in Flushing, game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low-to-mid 50s, which favors pitchers. Citi Field is the best pitching venue in the league. Luis Severino (15.9%) is widely available and threw around 85 pitches in a minor league game last week. He fanned 12 with just one walk over 14 Grapefruit League innings. The Milwaukee Brewers’ lineup isn’t daunting, rendering Severino as one of the slate’s top streamers.

Many hoped it would be Paul Skenes and not Jared Jones making his Pittsburgh Pirates debut Saturday. However, with a date in South Beach against the Miami Marlins, Jones is in a great spot. The 22-year-old right-hander throws four pitches, with a 96 mph four-seamer leading the way. Jones’ slider is his next best pitch with a curve and changeup a bit behind in their development. Jones threw eight walks in just 16⅓ spring innings, which is concerning, but his minor league track record suggests control won’t be a major issue. The Marlins’ offense should be better than last season, but it’s still a middle-of-the-pack unit.

It’s not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Finish your draft before the first pitch of Sunday night’s game and all stats will retroactively count for Week 1. Come and join the fun!

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Jeimer Candelario (CIN, 3B — 31%) vs. Patrick Corbin

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN, 1B — 37%) vs. Corbin

Jonathan India (CIN, 2B — 18%) vs. Corbin

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, DH — 2%) at Ryan Weathers

Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 5%) at Tommy Henry

Santiago Espinal (CIN, 2B — 0%) vs. Corbin

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 18%) at Seth Lugo

Byron Buxton (MIN, DH — 23%) at Lugo

Henry Davis (PIT, RF — 7%) at Weathers

Kris Bryant (COL, RF — 20%) at Henry

Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF — 91%) vs. Max Fried

Triston Casas (BOS, 1B — 89%) at Logan Gilbert