Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Mike Sheets

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We certainly don’t go out of our way to stream pitchers against the Houston Astros, but we’re making an exception for Cole Ragans (rostered in 52% of ESPN leagues), who has pitched like an ace since joining the Kansas City Royals’ rotation. Across nine starts, the left-hander holds a 1.69 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with an 11.7 K/9, notching a pair of double-digit strikeout performances. He has also allowed just two runs in his last four starts combined. Yes, Houston’s offense is scary. However, there are some pitchers that you start regardless of matchup, and that’s how Ragans should be treated right now.

Another super talented young hurler in a tough matchup, Grayson Rodriguez (35%) is set to square off against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. While the Rays are obviously a tough customer, posting a 110 wRC+ so far in September, G-Rod has been awfully good in his own right, delivering a 2.55 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last nine starts. During that stretch, he held opponents to three or fewer runs in all nine outings. The fact that he’s rostered in just 35% of ESPN leagues is a little baffling.

Andrew Abbott (46%) is in the midst of a rough patch, holding a 6.09 ERA since the beginning of August, but he still finds himself as a potential streamer on Saturday versus the New York Mets. He was initially scheduled to pitch against the Detroit Tigers earlier this week, and that matchup was much more favorable for the lefty. That said, the Mets have been slightly below average against left-handed pitching this season (96 wRC+), so this isn’t a spot we necessarily have to avoid. There’s some risk here because of the Mets’ recent hot hitting, but there’s strikeout upside here, too.

J.P. France (23%) has been somewhat up and down of late. Since the middle of August, he has four starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed. However, he also has two outings where he served up 5+ runs, including getting blasted by the Boston Red Sox for 10 runs in just 2 1/3 frames. That type of inconsistency doesn’t necessarily make him an ideal streamer, but Saturday’s matchup against the Royals is hard to pass up. After all, the Royals rank 23rd in MLB with an 86 wRC+ over the last 30 days, with a 7.2% walk rate that ranks them bottom-five. The hope is that France can take advantage of the soft landing spot.

On the hitting side, the Cleveland Guardians find themselves in an appealing spot against Dane Dunning, one of the day’s lowest-ranked hurlers. The right-hander has been slammed for an 8.14 ERA over his last five games, surrendering multiple home runs in three of them. Josh Naylor (71%), Andres Gimenez (52%), Bo Naylor (2%), and Kole Calhoun (1%) all have the platoon advantage in this weekend matchup.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B — 35%) at Daniel Bard and Kyle Freeland

Thairo Estrada (SF, 2B — 42%) at Bard and Freeland

Mitch Haniger (SF, RF — 6%) at Bard and Freeland

Nolan Jones (COL, RF — 19%) vs. Scott Alexander and Alex Cobb

Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS — 11%) vs. Alexander and Cobb

Patrick Bailey (SF, C — 2%) at Bard and Freeland

Elias Diaz (COL, C — 32%) vs. Alexander and Cobb

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 25%) vs. Alexander and Cobb

Luis Matos (SF, CF — 1%) at Bard and Freeland

Elehuris Montero (COL, 3B — 1%) vs. Alexander and Cobb

Daulton Varsho (TOR, C — 74%) vs. Chris Sale

Ty France (SEA, 1B — 63%) vs. Clayton Kershaw