Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Saturday’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals features a pair of worthy streamers in Merrill Kelly (rostered in 50% of ESPN leagues) and Miles Mikolas (48%). Kelly has delivered a 1.69 ERA over his first four starts to go along with a career-best 9.3 K/9 rate, which has been fueled by a 36.4% whiff rate on his changeup. Mikolas, meanwhile, owns a 1.21 ERA over four outings and gets one of the day’s better matchups against the D-backs, who rank 29th in baseball with a .267 wOBA.
It was easy to write off Jesus Luzardo (45%) after he posted a 6.61 ERA in 25 appearances in 2021, but it’s hard not to get pulled back in after his strong start to the season. The 24-year-old, who boasts a 3.77 ERA and 14.4 K/9 in three starts, has experienced a nearly two mph jump in his fastball velocity (95.5 mph to 97.4 mph). He’s also now throwing his curveball nearly 45% of the time (up from 28.7% in 2021). The Seattle Mariners have been tough on lefties this year, but Luzardo offers enough strikeout upside to give him plenty of DFS and streaming appeal.
The Cincinnati Reds offense has been almost non-existent so far, but Coors Field is a great place to jumpstart a lineup. The Reds’ left-handed bats could make for a sneaky DFS stack against Chad Kuhl, whose past home-run issues are bound to crop up again at Coors Field. Although Joey Votto is slumping to start the season, it’s worth noting that he has a career .347/.450/.589 slash line in Colorado.
There were questions about Alec Bohm (24%) and his playing time heading into the season, but he’s now playing every day and making the most of it, hitting .326/.375/.500 with a pair of homers and 14 RBIs in 18 games. He’s also sporting strong strikeout (13.5%) and walk rates (11.5%) to go along with a 53.8% hard-hit rate, so he’s not simply getting by on good luck. Consider grabbing him for the short-term, and he might just end up being a long-term asset.
Eric Lauer (39%) is coming off an absolutely dominant outing against the Philadelphia Phillies in which he fired six shutout frames and fanned a career-high 13 batters. The left-hander is working with career-best velocity this season, so it’s possible some of this early-season success sticks. Let it ride on Saturday against the Cubs, who have been less effective against lefties this season.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 34%) at Chad Kuhl
Tyler Naquin (CIN, CF — 5%) at Kuhl
Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3B — 10%) at Kuhl
Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 2%) at Kuhl
Colin Moran (CIN, 1B — 1%) at Kuhl
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 7%) at Kuhl
Wilmer Flores (SF, 3B — 22%) vs. Joan Adon
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 41%) vs. Justin Steele
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 16%) at Spenser Watkins
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 22%) vs. Chris Archer
Jeimer Candelario (DET, 3B — 56%) at Clayton Kershaw
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 88%) vs. Gerrit Cole
Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B — 59%) at Kershaw
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 82%) vs. Shane Bieber
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 61%) at Jesus Luzardo
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 69%) at Eric Lauer
Jarred Kelenic (SEA, CF — 50%) at Luzardo
Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B — 96%) at Shane McClanahan
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 68%) vs. Kyle Gibson
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 91%) vs. Robbie Ray