Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Mike Sheets

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Health has long been the issue with James Paxton (45% rostered in ESPN leagues), but he’s healthy now and he’s dominating. He was particularly filthy his last time out, spinning 7⅔ shutout frames against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre. Overall, Paxton boasts a 2.70 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and an 11.0 K/9 rate across nine starts. He shouldn’t experience any slowdown, as his matchup against the Oakland Athletics is about as favorable as it gets. After all, the A’s have one of the worst offenses in baseball season, sporting an 87 wRC+ with a 24.6% strikeout rate. Paxton is an easy pickup as one of the day’s top streamers.

It has been a mixed bag for rookie pitcher Gavin Williams (13%) since the Cleveland Guardians called him up in mid-June. While he owns a respectable 3.79 ERA over three starts, his K/9 sits at just 5.7, and the Atlanta Braves tagged him for three home runs in his last outing. That said, he fired seven shutout innings against the Kansas City Royals in his second start, and he squares off against those same Royals this weekend. Blessed with stuff that could make him an ace in the future, Williams can be started with confidence versus a K.C. lineup that ranks worst in MLB over the past 30 days with a wRC+ of 72.

Braxton Garrett (53%) is on some kind of run right now. The southpaw’s past 10 starts have seen him produce a 2.26 ERA with 70 Ks in 55⅔ frames. The Philadelphia Phillies will present a stiff test for the 25-year-old. However, they’ve actually been below average against lefty pitching this season (97 wRC+), and Garrett appears to be matchup proof right now, so keep throwing him out there as long as he’s rolling.

Opposing hurler Ranger Suarez (40%) looks like a fine streamer against the Miami Marlins, but some caution is warranted. Miami’s offense has been one of the most lethal in baseball against left-handed pitching this season (120 wRC+), and the Marlins have been hitting well over the past two weeks (111 wRC+). Consider righty batters Jorge Soler (77%), Bryan De La Cruz (16%), Garrett Cooper (4%), Jon Berti (3%) and Jean Segura (6%) as under-the-radar plays.

A recent hot streak has seen Corey Julks (3%) slash .415/.500/.547 over his past 15 games, with a home run and five stolen bases, giving him 15 steals on the year. Although his hard-hit metrics aren’t very impressive, and he has only six homers in 67 games, he’s providing enough value across the board to warrant some attention in deeper fantasy leagues. Plus, Julks did pop 31 dingers at Triple-A last season, so there’s at least some hope for more power.

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF — 50%) vs. Drew Smyly

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 16%) at Touki Toussaint

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 8%) vs. Connor Seabold

Adam Duvall (BOS, CF — 26%) vs. Paul Blackburn

Harrison Bader (NYY, CF — 17%) vs. Smyly

Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B — 31%) at Toussaint

LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF — 21%) vs. Seabold

Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 32%) at Colin Rea

TJ Friedl (CIN, LF — 23%) at Rea

Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 15%) vs. Miles Mikolas

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 59%) vs. Spencer Strider

Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B — 52%) vs. Strider