Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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On Saturday, we get a monster 17-game slate, with the Cincinnati Reds taking on the St. Louis Cardinals in a doubleheader, and the Minnesota Twins playing two versus the Cleveland Guardians. In one of the Reds’ two games, Hunter Greene (24% rostered in ESPN leagues) is scheduled to return to the mound after missing a month and a half with a right shoulder strain. The hard-throwing right-hander made three rehab appearances, allowing two runs while striking out 15 in seven innings. Because he threw just three frames in his final rehab start, expect him to be on a pitch count this weekend, which obviously lowers any appeal he has as a streamer. That said, Hunter’s strikeout upside (11.1 K/9) could give him some value down the stretch.
After getting hammered for a 5.85 ERA through his first 19 starts and eventually landing on the injured list with a back injury, Trevor Rogers (60%) has seemingly turned a corner. Since returning from the IL, the lefty has posted a 2.95 ERA over three starts, with 22 Ks in 18 1/3 innings. Yes, it’s a small sample, but it’s still very encouraging after such a long stretch of struggles. Rogers’ recent run of success should continue against the Washington Nationals’ lackluster lineup. It’s worth noting that he’s on track to face the Nats again next week, too.
We’ve been highlighting George Kirby (61%) in this space for weeks now, and while his rostered percentage is slowly creeping up, it’s baffling that he’s still available in nearly 40% of ESPN leagues. As a quick refresher, Kirby has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break, registering a 1.90 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 0.95 BB/9. Over his last 11 outings, he’s given up more than two earned runs just once (and that was only three runs). There’s simply no reason Kirby should be on the waiver wire right now. Fire him up on Saturday against a Los Angeles Angels club that’s fanning at a 25.9% clip over the last month.
Johnny Cueto (45%) may not be as young and exciting as Kirby, but he still qualifies as a quality streamer or affordable DFS play. The veteran right-hander sports a 2.94 ERA over his last 16 starts, including a 2.30 ERA on the road, which is where he’ll square off against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday. There’s obviously very little strikeout potential here (5.7 K/9), but he won’t need to miss bats to shut down the Tigers, who sport the worst offense in the American League since the All-Star break (82 wRC+, .280 wOBA).
Elvis Andrus (29%) has found new life since being released by the Oakland A’s and subsequently signing with the Chicago White Sox. Since changing digs, the veteran shortstop has hit .313/.359/.525 with five homers, 20 RBI, and three steals over 24 games. Not only that, but he’s solidified himself as the White Sox’s leadoff hitter, giving himself plenty of run-scoring opportunities while hitting ahead of Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez. As long as he’s swinging a hot bat, Andrus looks to be a fantasy asset over the season’s final weeks. He draws the platoon edge against Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez on Saturday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 34%) at Shane Bieber
Albert Pujols (STL, 1B — 17%) vs. Hunter Greene
Gio Urshela (MIN, 3B — 21%) at Bieber
Oscar Gonzalez (CLE, RF — 13%) vs. Jharel Cotton
Gary Sanchez (MIN, C — 33%) at Bieber
Brendan Donovan (STL, 3B — 24%) vs. Greene
Donovan Solano (CIN, 2B — 2%) at Jose Quintana
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 28%) at Quintana
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 17%) vs. Greene
Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 1%) at Quintana
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 66%) at Chris Bassitt
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 70%) at Shohei Ohtani
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 74%) vs. Aaron Nola
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 67%) at Ohtani
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 85%) vs. Nola
Vaughn Grissom (ATL, SS — 56%) vs. Nola
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF — 70%) vs. Nola
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 56%) vs. Julio Urias
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 88%) at JT Chargois
Ozzie Albies (ATL, 2B — 89%) vs. Nola