Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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George Kirby (58% rostered in ESPN leagues) has been a frequenter of this space for some time now, and while his rostered percentage has been slowly creeping up, he’s still available in way too many leagues. Since July 1, the 24-year-old has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in nine of 10 starts, culminating in a 2.22 ERA with 60 Ks in 52 2/3 innings during that stretch. Even in a tough matchup against the Atlanta Braves, Kirby is well worth starting right now. It’s rare that a pitcher of his caliber is so widely available for such a long time, so take advantage of it.
In terms of DFS, it’s possible that many fantasy managers are still shying away from Lance Lynn, who had a rough go of it early in the season and still holds an ERA north of 4.00. That said, the veteran right-hander has turned a corner, delivering a 1.42 ERA over his last five turns with 40 strikeouts in 31 2/3 frames. He’s also racked up eight or more Ks in three straight outings, including a season-high 11 in his last start against Seattle. In a tasty matchup against the Oakland A’s, who sport the second-worst wOBA (.275) against right-handed pitching this season, Lynn is a very strong play this weekend.
Jack Flaherty looked sharp in his first start off the IL on Monday, as he spun five innings of one-run ball against the Nationals with six Ks and only one walk. It was encouraging to see the right-hander average 94 mph on his heater and top out at 97 mph, suggesting the shoulder issues that hindered him this season are behind him. Flaherty may be already rostered in the majority of ESPN leagues (74%), but the fact that he’s still available in more than 25% is noteworthy. On Saturday, he gets an extremely favorable matchup against a Pirates club that’s fanning at an MLB-worst 26.7% clip over the last month.
Taking advantage of games at Coors Field is somewhat of a no-brainer, but the Rockies’ Jose Urena makes this matchup particularly appealing for Arizona’s left-handed batters. After all, the Colorado right-hander has been punished by lefty swingers this season, surrendering a .333/.425/.479 triple slash and a .398 wOBA. Whether in DFS or season-long leagues with daily moves, getting exposure to one or two of Josh Rojas (69%), Ketel Marte (94%), Jake McCarthy (30%), Daulton Varsho (95%), Corbin Carroll (17%) and Alek Thomas (6%) on Saturday should be profitable.
Joey Meneses (33%), a late bloomer at 30 years old, just continues to hit. Since his callup in early August, he’s produced a .339/.368/.567 triple slash line with seven dingers, 17 RBIs, and 21 runs in 31 games. Even more impressive is the damage he’s imposed on lefties, as he’s batting .404/.451/.702 with an amazing 219 wRC+ against them. With Meneses getting the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez on Saturday, it’s a great time to stream the slugger, who has eligibility at both first base and outfield.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 5%) vs. Madison Bumgarner
MJ Melendez (KC, C — 26%) vs. Matt Manning
Carson Kelly (ARI, C — 13%) at Jose Urena
Sean Bouchard (COL, 1B — 0%) vs. Madison Bumgarner
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 34%) at JT Brubaker
TJ Friedl (CIN, CF — 4%) at Adrian Houser
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS — 28%) vs. Jack Flaherty
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 61%) at Blake Snell
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 67%) vs. Max Fried
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 88%) at Blake Snell
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 58%) at Blake Snell
Christian Vazquez (HOU, C — 54%) vs. Shohei Ohtani
Trey Mancini (HOU, 1B — 80%) vs. Shohei Ohtani
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 80%) at George Kirby
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 51%) at Pablo Lopez
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 69%) at Pablo Lopez
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 66%) vs. Jack Flaherty