Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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You’re not going to sit Julio Urias (99% rostered in ESPN leagues) against the Cincinnati Reds, but the 25-year-old lefty, who was drafted as a top-10 starting pitcher, is worth monitoring given some early red flags. While we can give Urias a free pass for getting roughed up in his season debut at Coors Field, it’s hard to write off the drastic dip in velocity. After averaging 94.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2021, he sat just 91.4 mph with his fastball in his first start this season. His other pitches suffered a velocity drop, too. We obviously don’t want to overreact to one start, but hopefully Urias shows a little more velo in Saturday’s outing.
Jameson Taillon (19.1% rostered) looked sharp in his season debut, holding the Toronto Blue Jays to two runs over five frames while fanning six and walking none. Again, it’s only one start, but posting a well above-average 16.7% swinging-strike rate against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball was certainly encouraging. On Saturday, Taillon gets a much easier draw against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards, which is much more pitcher-friendly now that they’ve moved the left-field wall back about 30 feet. The New York Yankees righty is one of the top streamers on the slate.
Ji-Man Choi (7%) has been one of 2022’s early-season surprises, hitting .563 (9-for-16) with a pair of bombs and six RBIs in his first six games while primarily playing against righties. He has also walked more than he has struck out. Choi is set to face another right-hander on Saturday and gets a nice park bump, trading in Tropicana Field for Guaranteed Rate Field, one of the best parks in baseball for left-handed power. Both Choi and Josh Lowe (14%), another lefty swinger, are worthy streamers and DFS plays.
In his first big-league start since 2017, Nick Martinez (2%) made quick work of the San Francisco Giants earlier this week, holding them to one run over five innings while striking out six and walking one. His changeup and cutter were both big swing-and-miss offerings, generating whiff rates of at least 45%. The right-hander gets another tough matchup on Saturday, matching up with the Atlanta Braves, but he showed enough in his debut to make him streamer-worthy here.
After failing to making it out of the first inning in his 2022 debut (5 ER in 2/3 IP), Kris Bubic will be looking to rebound against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday. Given that the 24-year-old lefty owns a 4.63 ERA over 40 big-league appearances, we’re going to side with the offense here and load up on Tigers bats. The Tigers’ lineup features a slew of right-handed and switch hitters, making this a promising stacking opportunity.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF — 2%) at Antonio Senzatela
Nick Madrigal (CHC, 2B — 47%) at Senzatela
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 0%) vs. Josh Rogers
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 43%) vs. Steven Matz
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B — 7%) at Senzatela
Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C — 16%) vs. Paul Blackburn
Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B — 4%) vs. Rogers
Ben Gamel (PIT, LF — 0%) vs. Rogers
Jarred Kelenic (SEA, CF — 57%) vs. Justin Verlander
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 53%) vs. Verlander
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 71%) vs. Verlander
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 75%) vs. Ranger Suarez
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 76%) at Bubic
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 87%) at Urias
Kyle Schwarber (PHI, LF — 96%) at Trevor Rogers
Ty France (SEA, 1B — 91%) vs. Verlander
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 60%) vs. Anthony DeSclafani
Trent Grisham (SD, CF — 75%) vs. Ian Anderson