Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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After previously being sidelined all season as he worked his way back from elbow surgery, Dustin May (56%) looked good in his 2022 debut last week, firing five shutout innings against the Miami Marlins with nine strikeouts and only three total baserunners allowed. In addition to the impressive results, May averaged 97.7 mph on his fastball, which is close to where he sat pre-surgery (98 mph). A win will be hard to come by on Saturday with Sandy Alcantara taking the hill for Miami, but the 24-year-old still finds himself in a favorable spot against the Marlins, who sport an ugly 76 wRC+ since the All-Star break. While May’s rostered percentage has spiked over the last week, he’s still available in a large number of leagues.
Start after start, Jeffrey Springs (45%) just keeps getting the job done. Over his last 15 turns, the Tampa Bay Rays left-hander owns a sparkling 2.54 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9. Just once during that stretch has Springs surrendered more than three runs in a start. Against a Boston Red Sox offense that’s been well below average over the last 30 days with a 92 wRC+, Springs looks to be a quality streaming option on Saturday.
Sticking with the Rays/Red Sox game, it’s a good time to stack up on right-handed bats from Tampa Bay with Rich Hill toeing the rubber for the Sox. The veteran left-hander is allowing a .352 wOBA to righty swingers this season, which puts Harold Ramirez (20%), Manuel Margot (11%), Jose Siri (1%), and Isaac Paredes (13%) — who has whacked homers in two of his last three games — all on the streaming radar for those in leagues with daily moves.
Drew Smyly (9%) has been on a nice little run, delivering a 2.38 ERA over six second-half starts. His recent effectiveness has been bolstered by a slight uptick in the velocity of his sinker. While his season-long average with the pitch sits at 92.5 mph, he has increased that to 93.4 mph over his last three starts. Look for Smyly’s success to continue against a Milwaukee Brewers offense that’s been largely non-existent against lefties, illustrated by its .270 wOBA and 26.1% strikeout rate.
Early in the season, Jorge Mateo (44%) was solely a source of stolen bases for fantasy managers. That’s not necessarily the case anymore. After batting .205/.258/.353 with a 74 wRC+ in the first half, he has hit .308/.345/.558 with a 158 wRC+ since the break. Perhaps most notably, he’s cut his 30.7% K-rate from the first half to just 20% in the second. Mateo, who has eligibility at both outfield and shortstop, now looks like a much more interesting fantasy commodity — both as a daily streaming option and as a potential asset for the stretch run.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 12%) at Paolo Espino
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 20%) vs. Merrill Kelly
Mike Moustakas (CIN, 3B — 7%) at Espino
Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 50%) vs. Springs
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 43%) vs. Tyler Beede
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 12%) at Jackson Kowar
Emmanuel Rivera (ARI, 3B — 1%) at Davis Martin
Wil Myers (SD, RF — 6%) at Kowar
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 64%) at David Peterson
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 60%) at Alcantara
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 58%) vs. Charlie Morton
Franmil Reyes (CHC, DH — 59%) at Brandon Woodruff
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 88%) at Luis Castillo
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 91%) vs. Shohei Ohtani
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 71%) at Castillo
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 87%) at Woodruff
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 72%) at Jordan Montgomery
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 91%) vs. Ohtani