Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Since allowing eight runs to the Los Angeles Angels back in early May, Corey Kluber (50% rostered in ESPN leagues) has delivered a 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his last seven starts. Just once in those seven outings did he allow more than two earned runs. While Kluber took advantage of multiple favorable matchups against the Baltimore Orioles during that stretch, he also held the Yankees to one earned run over 12 frames, so he’s not just picking on bad teams. Saturday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates puts Kluber in another favorable spot, making the right-hander a slam-dunk streaming option if he’s still available in your league.
There’s some risk in Josiah Gray’s (39%) profile given his 4.2 walk rate and 1.84 HR/9, but there’s some nice upside here, too. In addition to posting a 0.82 ERA over his last four starts, including six shutout frames against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last outing, he’s also put up a 9.6 K/9 this season. Gray isn’t necessarily a guy you trust enough to throw out there no matter the matchup, but he matches up well with a Texas Rangers club that’s been below average against righties (91 wRC+) with a 25.1% strikeout rate in June.
Plenty of prospects have been making their big-league debuts in recent weeks, but it’s hard to find a rookie who has made such an immediate impact as Michael Harris (42%). As the youngest player in major league baseball, Harris is batting .333/.363/.552 with three homers and two steals in his first 24 games. He’s also a terrific defender in center field, which should help keep him in the lineup should his bat eventually cool down. A lefty-on-lefty matchup against Andrew Heaney on Saturday isn’t necessarily a great spot for the 21-year-old, but Harris still looks like a strong pickup who could pay long-term dividends.
Zach Eflin is an underrated pitcher, but he’s been roughed up in his last two outings and is now dealing with a right knee injury that he’s expected to try to pitch through on Saturday. It’s unlikely that the right-hander will have this best stuff, so it might be a golden opportunity to stack San Diego bats against him. Luke Voit (44%), who is batting .297/.409/.703 over his last nine games, is a good name to target. Also consider Trent Grisham (49%), who has moved back to the leadoff spot in the team’s last two games against righties.
You wouldn’t necessarily know it from his 42% rostered percentage, but Nathaniel Lowe has been a top-10 fantasy first baseman over the past month. Since June 1, he’s batting .304/.329/.582 with six homers and 12 RBI in 20 games. While we already recommended Josiah Gray as a potential streamer on Saturday, Lowe matches up well, getting the platoon advantage against a fly ball pitcher who has trouble with homers.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 42%) vs. Josh Winckowski
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 41%) vs. Alex Faedo
Hunter Dozier (KC, RF — 18%) vs. Jared Koenig
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 14%) vs. Faedo
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 36%) vs. Winckowski
Ramon Laureano (OAK, CF — 8%) at Brad Keller
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 26%) vs. Austin Voth
Carlos Santana (KC, 1B — 41%) vs. Koenig
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 29%) vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Seth Brown (OAK, RF — 5%) at Keller
Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 81%) at Corbin Burnes
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 53%) at Max Fried
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF — 85%) at Burnes
Brandon Drury (CIN, LF — 85%) at Logan Webb
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 57%) at Webb
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 92%) at Fried
Teoscar Hernandez (TOR, LF — 91%) at Burnes
Jonathan India (CIN, 2B — 74%) at Webb
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS — 52%) at Corey Kluber
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 54%) at Webb