Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Opening Day
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by Mike Sheets
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The New York Mets kick things off against the Washington Nationals and Patrick Corbin, who was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball last year, stumbling to a 5.82 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP across 31 starts. The left-hander was also highly ineffective against right-handed batters, surrendering a .302/.359/.562 line and a .387 wOBA. This sets things up well for a pair of lesser-rostered righties – J.D. Davis (1% rostered in ESPN leagues) and James McCann (3% rostered) – to do some damage with the platoon advantage.
With so many aces on the slate, there aren’t many widely available hurlers, but Madison Bumgarner (11%), who has shown an uptick in velocity this spring, deserves at least some consideration as a streaming option. The San Diego Padres were below-average against lefties in 2021, and their lineup looks a little soft on paper with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined. Chase Field also suppresses homers.
The Cleveland Guardians lineup isn’t overpowering, but it still provides a cheap, under-the-radar stacking opportunity against Zack Greinke and his pitch-to-contact approach. Bobby Bradley (2%) provides the power, Andres Gimenez (3%) brings the speed, and Steven Kwan (1%) offers a little bit of everything after having hit .328 with 12 dingers and six steals in 296 at-bats between Double- and Triple-A in 2021.
On a day that’s filled with staff aces, JT Brubaker of the Pittsburgh Pirates stands out as someone we want to attack. The right-hander sported a 5.36 ERA last season, including an ugly 7.57 mark in the second half. Brubaker’s biggest problem was his inability to keep the ball in the park, as his 2.03 HR/9 would have ranked worst in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. Harrison Bader (25%), Yadier Molina (21%), Paul DeJong (3%), and perhaps even 42-year-old Albert Pujols (3%) should take advantage of one of Thursday’s most favorable matchups.
Rowdy Tellez (3%) may be part of a first-base platoon this season, but he’ll be in the heart of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup on Thursday with right-hander Kyle Hendricks taking the hill for the Chicago Cubs, giving him appeal as a streamer or DFS option. The lefty slugger consistently makes hard contact, and Hendricks looks like one of the more exploitable hurlers on the slate. After being drilled for a 4.77 ERA over 32 starts last season, the veteran’s spring performance (9.53 ERA in 11 1/3 IP) doesn’t offer much hope for a turnaround.
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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 48%) at Hendricks
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 47%) at Greinke
David Peralta (ARI, LF — 21%) vs. Yu Darvish
Myles Straw (CLE, CF — 35%) at Greinke
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 46%) at Max Fried
Austin Nola (SD, C — 4%) at Bumgarner
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 0%) at Adam Wainwright
Wil Myers (SD, RF — 11%) at Bumgarner
Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF — 42%) at Corbin
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 61%) vs. Corbin Burnes
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 91%) vs. Shane Bieber
Willson Contreras (CHC, C — 93%) vs. Burnes
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 89%) vs. Burnes
San Diego Padres at Bumgarner
Houston Astros at Shohei Ohtani
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Darvish