Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Monday’s slate brings us 10 games, all evening affairs. The schedule is better suited to fortify hitting than pitching, but there are a few arms worth considering for streaming. Johnny Cueto (12% rostered in ESPN leagues) has started five games for the Chicago White Sox. He’s pitched at least six innings in each, with four quality starts. Next up is a road date with the weak Detroit Tigers offense, sporting the lowest wOBA in the league with a righthander on the hill.
Brady Singer (11%) has recorded a 7.47 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over his last three outings, but he fanned 17 with no walks in those 15 2/3 innings. The issue was allowing three homers. On Monday, Singer and the Kansas City Royals visit the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have the ninth-lowest home run rate at home in the league. The last streaming option is the riskiest with Mike Minor taking the ball for the Cincinnati Reds in the desert against the Arizona Diamondbacks. On paper, the matchup is favorable as the Diamondbacks sport the third-lowest wOBA against southpaws, along with the third-worst strikeout rate. However, Minor has struggled in his first two starts, surrendering five homers in 8 1/3 frames.
Using several players from the same lineup (stacking) is a common ploy in DFS, but it can also be effective in traditional fantasy on abbreviated slates where there are more open active roster spots. The idea is a single event can result in multiple players scoring points, with one teammate knocking in another. The Pittsburgh Pirates are a great target for a Monday stack as they face Packy Naughton. The St. Louis Cardinals southpaw is the ranked as the third worst pitcher on the docket. Michael Chavis, Cal Mitchell, Jack Suwinski and Yu Chang are all available in over 95% of ESPN leagues.
A couple of standalone batters in a favorable spot include Luke Voit (29%) facing Cubs southpaw Justin Steele and Jose Siri (1%) drawing Taylor Hearn. Siri and all of the Houston Astros benefit from Sam Huff behind the plate for the Texas Rangers as Huff has difficulty controlling the running game.
Earlier, it was noted that the Diamondbacks are collectively weak against southpaws. However, right swinging Christian Walker (32%) is an interesting hitter for more than just this matchup. No other batter has improved his flyball exit velocity more, the primary driving force of power. Walker’s average is low, but it’s due to an unlucky BABIP on grounders. Look for Walker’s power to maintain an elevated level while his batting average inches upward as more groundballs find holes.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 19%) at Rony Garcia
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 42%) at Merrill Kelly
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF — 42%) at Garcia
Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B — 44%) vs. Johnny Cueto
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B — 49%) vs. Yu Darvish
Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 11%) at Justin Steele
Gary Sanchez (MIN, C — 45%) at Chris Flexen
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 29%) at Steele
Lane Thomas (WSH, CF — 5%) vs. Ian Anderson
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 2%) at Zack Thompson
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 58%) vs. Brady Singer
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 60%) vs. Cristian Javier
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C — 99%) vs. Sandy Alcantara
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 72%) at Alek Manoah
Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B — 57%) vs. Chris Archer
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 97%) at Aaron Nola
Salvador Perez (KC, C — 96%) at Alex Wood
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 82%) at Manoah
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 72%) at Rony Garcia
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 63%) at Josiah Gray