Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

We’re at the point of the season when many pitchers have made four or five starts. Unto itself, that seems like a small sample, but when you consider each pitch to be an event, the sample ranges between 300 and 400. Batters playing every day have put 50 to 80 balls in play, which are far fewer events to evaluate. We know the velocity, spin rate, location and movement of every pitch, so each can be deemed an event.

The repercussion is there is more data available to help decide whether a pitcher is exhibiting a new skill level. It’s not sufficient to make an unequivocal claim, but fantasy baseball is about playing probabilities, and this is better applied to pitchers at this point of the season.

A proper ranking system should not be influenced by recency bias, and it should take a lot of convincing for it to change its mind from initial expectations. That said, occasionally there are signs that a pitcher is different than the version generating past results. It’s subjective, but most systems can be overridden to better account for the changes. It’s a slippery slope because often there isn’t a true cause and effect of what appears to be a tangible change; the early success was happenstance, and not stemming from the change.

There are two hurlers on Monday’s docket for which this notion applies. Brady Singer and Reid Detmers are both off to solid starts but are ranked (rightfully so) in the bottom half of the day’s starters. Their rostership indicates many believe they are for real but face tough lineups. Should they be active?

Detmers and the Los Angeles Angels have a home date with the Baltimore Orioles. Detmers strikeout rate has increased each season, but this year it has spiked to 34.9% while his walk rate is a career low 8.1%. The southpaw has tweaked his pitch distribution by throwing a few more four-seam fastballs and changeups while cutting back on sliders and curves. The swinging strike rate on both has improved, suggesting excellent tunneling, that is the batter has difficulty recognizing the pitch coming out of Detmer’s hand. While this isn’t definitive proof, it’s reason for optimism, so Detmers will be in my Monday lineup.

The Kansas City Royals entertain the Toronto Blue Jays with Singer getting the nod for Monday’s series opener. Like Detmer, Singer has altered his repertoire. The club tried to get Singer to adjust in 2023, but he didn’t comply until late in the year and struggled most of the season. Early in the spring, Singer stated he would continue to throw more four-seam fastballs and sweepers. The early results are encouraging. The added pitches are at the expense of Singer’s sinker, which was hit hard last season while generating scant strikeouts. Increasing four-seam usage adds another eye level to Singer’s approach with almost everything being down last season. Again, it’s only four starts, but there is reason for optimism, so I’m trusting Singer for this outing.

• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

Monday presents an 11-game slate with action getting going at 1:05 PM ET in the Bronx with the New York Yankees hosting the Oakland Athletics. This is the only matinee on the schedule. The evening’s last affair is in Oracle Park with the San Francisco Giants hosting the New York Mets.

The slate’s top streaming option is Lance Lynn (44.1% rostered in ESPN leagues). Homers are Lynn’s primary issue, so he’s helped by a home date since Busch Stadium tends to suppress power. On Monday, the St. Louis Cardinals welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks for the first game of a three-game set. The Diamondbacks’ home run rate is league average, though they don’t strike out much. In a league with an innings or starts limit, there are better options than Lynn, especially since it’s the first day of the scoring period. In other formats, Lynn should be safe to deploy.

Immediately following Lynn in the rankings is Zack Littell (18.2%). Littell’s early season 1.33 WHIP is high, but it’s due to a .361 BABIP. His 5.6% walk rate is solid. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Detroit Tigers, with the visitors toting the fifth lowest wOBA in the league into Tropicana Field, along with an above average strikeout rate. Littell checks in as an excellent streaming candidate in all formats.

It’s a little surprising that Jared Jones (53.9%) is still available in almost half of ESPN leagues, especially because fantasy enthusiasts often gravitate to the shiny new toy. Jones opened his MLB career with 32 strikeouts and only two walks in his first 23 frames. He and the Pittsburgh Pirates embark on a home set with the Milwaukee Brewers. There is risk since the Brewers have the top road wOBA in the league. The safe play is reserving Jones in head to head formats but letting him loose otherwise.

An argument can be tendered to stream Jose Quintana (5.9%), Reynaldo Lopez (36.0%), Keaton Winn (1.8%) and Yusei Kikuchi (43.1%), but let’s focus on Kikuchi since he could have been included with Detmers and Singer in the opening. The lefty has always missed bats, but so far his strikeout rate has ballooned to a career-best 33.0% while his 9.1% walk rate is just a tick above his career mark. Kikuchi historically has yielded a lot of homers, but this season he’s only yielded one long ball in 21 2/3 innings. The reason is two-fold as his ground ball rate is 51%, well above his career level while his HR/FB is 7.1%, well below half of his career average. He’s throwing fewer sliders, and more curves while introducing a changeup. Home runs can be fluky, and they clearly won’t remain at this rate, but Kikuchi is in play when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Kansas City Royals.

It’s not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Jurickson Profar (SD, LF — 19%) at Austin Gomber

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF — 31%) vs. JP Sears

Jackson Merrill (SD, SS — 36%) at Gomber

Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF — 22%) vs. Brandon Pfaadt

Joc Pederson (ARI, LF — 4%) at Lance Lynn

Matt Chapman (SF, 3B — 41%) vs. Jose Quintana

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 29%) at Reid Detmers

Wilmer Flores (SF, 1B — 11%) vs. Quintana

Justin Turner (TOR, 1B — 46%) at Brady Singer

Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 11%) vs. Dylan Cease

Colton Cowser (BAL, RF — 59%) at Detmers

Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C — 72%) at Lynn