Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Only the Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins aren’t playing on the first Monday of the season. The 14-game slate features three matinees, beginning at 2:10 PM ET with an interleague affair between the visiting Atlanta Braves and host Chicago White Sox. The final contest is an NL West matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers entertaining the San Francisco Giants.

The schedule is devoid of top-end pitching, with only three probable starters rostered in over half of ESPN leagues. Several will be logging their first start ever for their team, with Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga making his major league debut in a home tilt against the Colorado Rockies. Team tendencies vary year to year since the personnel changes. However, the Rockies offense has been in the bottom third of the league each of the past five seasons for road games against left-handed pitching. There isn’t anything about the current lineup portending a significant improvement. This puts Imanaga in a great spot for his inaugural MLB outing. He’s one of the trio rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues, but at 56.4%, he’s still widely available. Spring performances aren’t always predictive but fanning 25 in 12 2/3 innings is extreme enough to take notice. Here is everything else you need to know on Monday’s docket.

• Pitching projections: Next 10 days
• Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin

Max Meyer (4.4% rostered in ESPN leagues) was initially optioned to Triple-A Jacksonville, but with Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera all sidelined to begin the season, the Miami Marlins recalled the former top prospect and inserted him into their rotation. While it won’t come into play on Monday, it’s worth noting that Meyer is the only righty in the Marlins rotations, so there will be series where he’s flanked by a couple of southpaws which may result in facing some lineups whose left-handed batters had the previous day or two off, possibly affecting their timing. Meyer is a solid streaming option at home against a Los Angeles Angels lineup lacking much support for Mike Trout.

The Boston Red Sox starting pitching held up surprisingly well in their season-opening series against the Seattle Mariners. On Monday, Tanner Houck (6.3%) makes his first start of the year in the Coliseum against the Oakland Athletics. Houck has teased the potential to be a solid pitcher, but he lacks consistency as well as historical struggles against left-handed batters. Over the past two seasons, 48% of the hitters Houck has faced were lefty swingers, yet they accounted for 14 of the 17 homers he allowed in that span. The Athletics will likely have at least four left-handed batters set to face Houck, but only Seth Brown is a real power threat, and the spacious venue works in Houck’s favor.

According to the Starting Pitcher rankings for Monday, James Paxton (5.7%) and the Dodgers have a 58% chance to defeat the Giants in Chavez Ravine. Much of this is expecting the Dodgers offense to tee off on Giants starter Keaton Winn, but Paxton has historically been an above average strikeout pitcher, a trait very much embraced in all fantasy formats. With the Giants’ new acquisitions Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman sporting above average strikeout rates, Paxton is one of the better streaming options on the ledger.

Through Saturday’s action, the Cleveland Guardians led MLB with eight steals. The oddity is eight players were tied for the team lead with one apiece. On Monday, the Guardians open a set with the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox were 4-for-6 in steals in the first three games of their series with the Mariners, which is sufficient to expect the Guardians to keep running in their matchup. David Fry (2.3%), Tyler Freeman (0.7%), Will Brennan (0.5%), Ramon Laureano (0.4%) and Gabriel Arias (0.2%) all have a bag and are widely available. Fry is of particular interest since he’s catcher eligible and has already appeared at first base and designated hitter, indicating manager Stephen Vogt wants his bat in the lineup.

It’s not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Finish your draft before the first pitch of Sunday night’s game and all stats will retroactively count for Week 1. Come and join the fun!

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF — 19%) at Ryne Nelson

Anthony Rizzo (NYY, 1B — 24%) at Nelson

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B — 44%) vs. Chase Silseth

Joey Meneses (WSH, DH — 9%) vs. Marco Gonzales

Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C — 11%) at Ronel Blanco

Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B — 3%) at Matt Waldron

Joc Pederson (ARI, LF — 5%) vs. Luis Gil

Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 9%) vs. Michael Wacha

Anthony Rendon (LAA, 3B — 2%) at Max Meyer

Wilmer Flores (SF, 1B — 15%) at James Paxton

Nolan Jones (COL, LF — 88%) at Shota Imanaga

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS — 96%) at Cristopher Sanchez