Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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While the hope is that overall offense will pick up as the weather warms, there is clearly more to the current suppressed scoring than cool April temperatures. The first Monday in May feeds into fewer runs as the top two starters in the rankings square off, as do the next two. So, expect the scoreboard operators in both Citi Field and LoanDepot Park to be bored.
The team with the best chance of putting up some crooked numbers is the Minnesota Twins as they open a road series against the Baltimore Orioles and the slate’s lowest-ranked starter in Tyler Wells. The visitors have been the league’s fifth most productive offense for the past week, so it’s worth checking on the availability of Max Kepler (62% rostered in ESPN leagues) along with Gary Sanchez (41% rostered), Gio Urshela (19%), Ryan Jeffers (2%) and Trevor Larnach (1%).
The Twins also feature the day’s top spot starter with Chris Paddack (11%) taking the hill in Camden Yards. Paddack has 10 strikeouts with just one free pass over his last two outings, spanning 10 1/3 frames, helping to combat a bloated .356 BABIP. The Orioles have fanned at a 26% clip so far, the sixth-highest rate in the league. With strikeouts and innings being integral to traditional points league scoring as well as DFS, Paddack is one of the better bargain options for both.
Pitchers to stream are scant on the eight-game Monday slate. Joining Paddack is Steven Matz (42%). Please note, storms are forecast for late afternoon in St. Louis, so the series opener between the visiting Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals has been moved up to a 1:15 PM ET start. In other words, if you want to use Matz, don’t dilly-dally. The lefty only lasted four frames last time against the Mets, but he has 23 strikeouts (with just five walks) in 17 2/3 stanzas and is supported by one of the best defenses in the league.
Normally, only hurlers rostered in fewer than 50% of ESPN leagues are featured as streamers, but on a day with limited choices, Drew Rasmussen (62%) and Patrick Sandoval (64%) are worth mentioning, despite both being on the road. Sandoval and the Los Angeles Angels visit a depleted Chicago White Sox club, while Rasmussen and the Rays kick off a long west coast trip in Oakland.
Jordan Montgomery is rostered in 78% of ESPN leagues, clearly a high amount, but he still is a matchup play. With a road game for the New York Yankees on tap, it’s wise to have the southpaw reserved. Splits facing left-handed pitching are often skewed since around 72% of plate appearances come against right-handers, but with a .443 wOBA against left-handers, it’s safe to say the Toronto Blue Jays are comfortable in that scenario. They’ll be pricey, but a Blue Jays stack should be one of the few productive lineups on what looks to be a low-scoring ledger.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Chas McCormick (HOU, LF — 1%) vs. Marco Gonzales
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 44%) vs. Gonzales
Aledmys Diaz (HOU, 3B — 2%) vs. Gonzales
Jesus Aguilar (MIA, 1B — 34%) vs. Zac Gallen
Abraham Toro (SEA, 2B — 2%) at Jake Odorizzi
Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C — 11%) vs. Montgomery
Aaron Hicks (NYY, CF — 7%) at Ross Stripling
David Peralta (ARI, LF — 14%) at Pablo Lopez
Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF — 49%) vs. Charlie Morton
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 20%) vs. Zack Greinke
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 73%) at Chris Bassitt
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 68%) at Bassitt
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 85%) vs. Morton
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 93%) vs. Sandoval
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 85%) at Dylan Cease
David Fletcher (LAA, 2B — 53%) at Cease
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 81%) vs. Rasmussen
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 66%) vs. Morton
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS — 88%) at Matz
Austin Riley (ATL, 3B — 99%) at Bassitt