Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Monday’s limited four-game slate is a bit different than the MLB schedule makers initially planned. Saturday’s rainout in the Bronx with the New York Yankees hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks was moved to Monday, pushing the scheduled matchup between the Diamondbacks and Chicago White Sox in the Windy City to Thursday. The makeup in Yankee Stadium begins at 1:05 PM ET, with the remaining three contests all being evening affairs.

Only two hurlers have a rostership level below 50%, which is our cutoff for streaming considerations. Neither are strong options for a spot start with Patrick Sandoval (27.4%) occupying the top spot. The lefty will take the ball at home for the Los Angeles Angels, facing the visiting Texas Rangers. Sandoval’s 1.50 WHIP is a result of a high 10.8% walk rate along with being victimized by an above average .308 BABIP. His 19.8% strikeout rate is well below league average. The only appeal Sandoval has as a streamer is the Rangers have struggled facing left-handers over the past month, but chasing small-sample splits versus left-handers is a precarious plan.

The second will take the hill in the early game with Clarke Schmidt (11.7% rostered) getting the ball for the Yankees. To put it in perspective, on a full slate, he’d probably wouldn’t make the cut as a streaming option. Diamondbacks are competing for a wild card, so they’ll be playing their regulars even on a getaway day. Overall, Schmidt has posted a solid season, though he’s been victimized by an above average .309 BABIP and 13.5% home run per fly ball. He’s been especially unfortunate over his last four starts with a 22% home run per fly ball mark elevating his ERA in that span to 5.48, as compared to a 4.33 xFIP.

The marquee matchup features Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros visiting Luis Castillo and the Seattle Mariners. It’s hard to recommend hitters from either side, though the edge goes to the home team with Castillo having a better stretch run than Verlander. Over his last four efforts, Verlander has only 21 punch outs in 26 frames, while yielding seven homers. Meanwhile, Castillo has fanned 24 over his previous 19 stanzas, with only one homer surrendered.

Logan Webb taking the hill at home against Blake Snell is another five-star pitching matchup with both the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres vying to get back in the mix for the last National League wild card. Webb quietly leads MLB with 207 innings pitched. This is huge for points leagues, not to mention gives him the 18th most strikeouts despite registering the 29th highest strikeout rate among qualified starters. Snell is not only trying to pitch the Padres back into wild card contention, but he’s trying to win the NL Young Award, so he can bookend his mantle with the 2018 AL award. Expect a low-scoring affair, with the outcome likely decided late, putting the pressure on the bullpens. Oddly, despite having bullpens anchored by Camilo Doval and Josh Hader, two of the best closers in the league, the Giants and Padres relievers have struggled in September, each with a bullpen ERA over 4.00 this month.

Finding hitting on a short slate with solid pitching is a chore, but the Angels may be a sneaky lineup to target. They’ll face Rangers’ righty Jon Gray, who has been nothing short of miserable lately. In September, Gray has posted an 8.56 ERA and 2.29 WHIP over four starts, covering only 13 2/3 innings. He’s fanned a solid 15 hitters, but he’s issued nine free passes and five homers in that span. Logan O’Hoppe (8.4%), Zach Neto (1.4%), Nolan Schanuel (3.3%), Brandon Drury (28.4%) and Jared Walsh (1.4%) are the batters to pick up.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Tommy Pham (ARI, LF — 15%) at Jose Urena

Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 1%) at Urena

Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C — 7%) at Urena

Jace Peterson (ARI, 3B — 0%) at Urena

Geraldo Perdomo (ARI, SS — 10%) at Urena

Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 15%) vs. Merrill Kelly

Mitch Garver (TEX, DH — 20%) at Patrick Sandoval

Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B — 34%) vs. Blake Snell

Nolan Schanuel (LAA, 1B — 3%) vs. Jon Gray

Thairo Estrada (SF, 2B — 46%) vs. Snell

Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 87%) at Patrick Sandoval

Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 57%) at Logan Webb