Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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An already action-packed Monday schedule is embellished by a day-night doubleheader in Citizens Bank Park with the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Atlanta Braves with the opener at 1:35 p.m. ET. Every club but the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers will play under the lights.

One of the many impressive rookie pitchers is the slate’s top ranked streamer with Gavin Williams (11.5% rostered) and the Cleveland Guardians visiting the San Francisco Giants. Williams’ control hasn’t been sharp lately as he’s walked nine over his last 15 1/3 innings. For the season, the Giants walk rate is above average, but they’ve been one of the least potent offenses with a righty on the hill for the past month, with one of the reasons being a below average walk rate.

The next highest ranked streamer may be a surprise, but Jose Quintana (10.2%) has quietly pitched well for a Mets team playing out the string. Quintana’s 3.00 ERA over nine starts is artificially low as he’s only fanned 39 in 54 innings, but averaging six innings a start is noteworthy, especially in today’s landscape. The veteran southpaw isn’t likely to pad his strikeouts against an Arizona Diamondbacks club that puts the ball in play, but even so, the lineup sports the 11th lowest wOBA with a lefty on the hill.

Reid Detmers (28.8%) has righted the ship following a pair of August disasters where he surrendered seven runs in consecutive games, yielding five homers in those 6 1/3 innings. Since, Detmers has allowed just one long ball in four starts, covering 23 frames. On Monday, the Los Angeles Angels with try to play spoiler in T-Mobile Park in the opener of a series with the Seattle Mariners. Detmers lines up for a productive effort, facing a lineup with the second highest strikeout rate with a lefty on the hill over the last month.

It’s early in the fantasy week to play hunches, but there is a narrative for Josiah Gray (11.1%) to turn things around with the hopes of finishing the season strong. It’s been an inconsistent season for the 25-year-old right-hander as he’s teased a breakthrough on a couple of occasions, only to take a step back. He’s been in a late-season rut, but the Washington Nationals have given Gray some extra rest prior to his Monday road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Gray draws a nice spot for a rebound, drawing the offense with the 10th lowest wOBA and 11th highest strikeout rate facing righties since the break.

Doubleheaders are a great place to target batters since they have a chance to double up on their production. The key is identifying the hitters with the best chance of playing both ends. The Braves are coasting to the NL East crown and are closing in on the top seed in the senior circuit, so they could give their bench players some work. This hurts the appeal of Orlando Arcia (32.4%) with lefty swinger Nicky Lopez a logical candidate to play one of the games since both will be against right-handed hurler. Eddie Rosario (15.8%) is a tougher call since he’ll enjoy the platoon edge in both contests. However, Atlanta may opt to give Kevin Pillar some action.

The Phillies are more likely to play their best, especially since they have an off day on Thursday. The caveat is most of the potent Philadelphia lineup is rostered, with Brandon Marsh (9.5%) and Jake Cave (0.2%) the best candidates of those available in more than half of ESPN leagues to play a pair.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Eddie Rosario (ATL, LF — 15%) at Taijuan Walker and Michael Lorenzen

Orlando Arcia (ATL, 2B — 33%) at Walker and Lorenzen

Christopher Morel (CHC, CF — 21%) at Kyle Freeland

Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 20%) vs. Patrick Corbin

Brandon Marsh (PHI, LF — 9%) vs. Charlie Morton and R.J. Alaniz

Triston Casas (BOS, 1B — 44%) vs. Clarke Schmidt

Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 21%) vs. Jordan Wicks

Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 27%) at Dean Kremer

Jake Cave (PHI, LF — 0%) vs. Morton and. Alaniz

Miguel Andujar (PIT, LF — 0%) vs. Corbin

Carlos Correa (MIN, SS — 70%) vs. Tyler Glasnow

Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 53%) at Alex Cobb