Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games

More Teams. More Games.

Bryan Woo‘s solid first start back from the IL is a stepping stone to what should be a productive two-start week. Video by Tristan H. Cockcroft (1:12)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Monday marks the beginning of the last fantasy regular season week for those playing in standard ESPN head-to-head leagues. The best way to approach the week for those needing a win to secure a playoff berth is to be cautiously aggressive early, then let your stead toward the end of the week dictate your level of risk. By means of a heads up, there are only four games scheduled for Thursday, so it’s wise to get off to a strong start since there is one fewer slate to make up ground. Fortunately, the week commences with a rare 14-game ledger, with only the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays on the sidelines. Action begins at 6:40 p.m. ET with a pair of games.

Bryan Woo (8.1% rostered in ESPN leagues) is the first of several hurler worthy of a spot start. The Seattle Mariners right-hander will be making his second start since coming off the IL from forearm inflammation. Woo was limited to 65 pitches in his return, good enough for four innings with just three hits and one earned run allowed to the Chicago White Sox. Woo should be able to add at least another frame in his Monday home start against the Oakland Athletics. It’s a juicy matchup with the visitors toting the second-lowest wOBA and third-highest strikeout rate against righties into T-Mobile Park.

Grayson Rodriguez (23.3% rostered) has recorded three straight quality starts and was one out away from extending it to five. He has done it against formidable lineups, including the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros and San Diego Padres. Rodriguez’s strikeouts are still light, as he punched out just 15 over 19 innings in this span, but his minor league track record portends missing more bats as he continues to adapt to the major leagues. On Monday, Rodriguez is in a great spot to post another quality start when the Chicago White bring the league’s lowest wOBA facing right-handers to Camden Yards.

A third rookie makes the streaming cut with Bobby Miller (35.9%) and the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks in what portends to be a low-scoring affair. Miller yielded four runs in 6 1/3 innings in his last outing, but he fanned five with just one walk. It was his third straight start lasting at least six frames. Facing the Diamondbacks will be a challenge, but Miller has earned the nod with a 3.11 ERA and 1.09 WHIP since the break. His 33 punch-outs in 37 2/3 innings is a couple short of what’s desired, but Miller balanced it with a frugal eight walks and three homers allowed during that span.

Switching to a veteran, Kenta Maeda (19.5%) has also been productive since the midseason hiatus, as he has posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with an impressive 53 strikeouts in 41 2/3 second-half innings. Something must give on Monday night with Maeda squaring off with the Cleveland Guardians, the team with the lowest strikeout rate facing right-handers in MLB. Even if Maeda doesn’t pile up punch-outs, he’s matched up against one of the least productive lineups in the league and his teammates draw Xzavion Curry at home, so Maeda’s win potential is high.

There are a few other matchups which would have been one of the better options on other days, but here they’re just honorable mentions. For those wanting to be aggressive early in the fantasy week, Taijuan Walker (31.6%) taking the hill at home for the Philadelphia Phillies as they host the Los Angeles Angels is in play. Two riskier plays are Johan Oviedo (12.8%) leading the Pittsburgh Pirates into Kauffman Stadium for a road date with the Kansas City Royals and Luis Severino (36.9%) taking the ball for the New York Yankees for a road tilt versus the Detroit Tigers.

Fantasy offenses usually deploying Rays and Marlins have a hole or two to fill. Marcell Ozuna (48.9%) is the best target for his Coors Field matchup with Austin Gomber, with Orlando Arcia (30.7%) another conduit to the Atlanta Braves’ potent lineup to open their series with the Colorado Rockies. Matt McLain (49.3%) and Kerry Carpenter (35.7%) have favorable platoon edge matchups. A couple of deep-league targets are Royce Lewis (9.4%) and Liover Peguero (.6%).

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Marcell Ozuna (ATL, LF — 47%) at Austin Gomber

Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 22%) vs. Bryce Elder

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 7%) vs. Xzavion Curry

Cal Raleigh (SEA, C — 34%) vs. Adrian Martinez

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 29%) vs. Bryce Elder

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF — 17%) at Zack Greinke

Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 18%) at Greinke

Nolan Jones (COL, RF — 10%) vs. Elder

Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS — 12%) vs. Elder

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B — 44%) vs. Curry

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS — 88%) at Kyle Harrison

Lane Thomas (WSH, LF — 68%) at Kevin Gausman