Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Congratulations to everyone making the playoffs in head-to-head leagues as Labor Day kick off the fantasy postseason in ESPN leagues. Rotisserie-league managers should keep grinding with just four and a half weeks left and the attention of many being shared by those also playing fantasy football. The holiday action begins at 12:35 PM ET in Pittsburgh with the Mets visiting the Pirates. There are 13 games on the docket, buoyed by an old-fashioned single admission doubleheader in Camden Yards with the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles playing a pair with significant AL wild card implications.
Monday isn’t the best day to find pitchers to give a spot start. The most intriguing option is Houston Astros rookie Hunter Brown (3% rostered in ESPN leagues), ticketed for his MLB debut against a Texas Rangers club coming off a tough weekend series in Fenway Park. The 24-year-old righthander fanned 134 hitters in 106 innings for Triple-A Sugar Land, yielding only five homers. However, he experiences control woes with 45 free passes, though most came early in the season. Working in Brown’s favor is facing a Rangers lineup ranking below average in drawing walks while striking out at an above average clip.
Los Angeles Angels southpaw Jose Suarez (7%) also checks in as a streaming candidate. The Halos host a Detroit Tigers offense with a below average wOBA and an above-average strikeout rate facing lefthanders. Suarez has pitched well since the break, posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 32 punchouts in 34 frames.
Jack Flaherty (66%) is set to come off the IL for a home date against the Washington Nationals. Earlier in the season, Flaherty appeared to be rushed off the IL, before he made just three abbreviated starts. This time, the St. Louis Cardinals were more cautious, keeping the righty on rehab with Triple-A Memphis for an extra start. Flaherty whiffed in in 6 2/3 innings, so he should be able to pitch Monday with no restrictions against a below-average Nationals lineup. If you’ve been stashing Flaherty on the fantasy IL, there is no reason to wait, the matchup is favorable. It’s also worth checking to see if Flaherty is available, as one-third of those making the effort will be pleasantly surprised.
Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson have garnered most of the recent attention, but several other prospects have been promoted. They all won’t play enough to be more than a fantasy streamer, but Tristan Casas (3%), Oswald Peraza (1%), Cal Mitchell (1%) all have prospect pedigree and should in action on Monday. Miguel Vargas (3%), Ben DeLuzio (1%), Connor Wong (1%), Ryan Kreidler (1%), Yainer Diaz (1%), Nate Eaton (1%) and David Villar (1%) also have games scheduled for Monday so it’s worth checking if they’re in their team’s Labor Day lineup.
Two more players meriting attention are Spencer Torkelson (42%) and Lewis Brinson (1%). Torkelson was beginning to hit for Triple-A Toledo, so perhaps his second time in the bigs will be more fruitful. Brinson is well past prospect status, but the Giants have a knack for putting players in positions to succeed. Finally, Reds infielder Spencer Steer (1%) is off Monday, but he should get a lot of action down the stretch with Mike Moustakas out for the season.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Danny Jansen (TOR, C — 5%) at Jordan Lyles
Santiago Espinal (TOR, 3B — 27%) at Jordan Lyles
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, SS — 24%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Rougned Odor (BAL, 2B — 1%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Jorge Mateo (BAL, CF — 34%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Raimel Tapia (TOR, LF — 3%) at Jordan Lyles
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 50%) at Brady Singer
Luis Rengifo (LAA, SS — 13%) vs. Tyler Alexander
Daniel Vogelbach (NYM, 1B — 5%) at Mitch Keller
Kyle Stowers (BAL, RF — 0%) vs. Kevin Gausman
Josh Rojas (ARI, SS — 66%) at Blake Snell
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C — 94%) at Blake Snell
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 52%) at Andrew Heaney
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 67%) vs. Lance Lynn
Trevor Story (BOS, SS — 94%) at Drew Rasmussen
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 88%) at Hunter Brown
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 64%) vs. Lance Lynn
Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 50%) at Drew Rasmussen
Joc Pederson (SF, CF — 51%) at Andrew Heaney
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 53%) at Marco Gonzales