Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Monday’s abbreviated eight-game card starts at 6:40 PM ET in loanDepot Park with the third straight stellar pitching matchup to conclude the four-game set between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins. This time it’s Tony Gonsolin looking to embellish his Cy Young resume for the visitors while Pablo Lopez hopes to build on the momentum from his last start and finish the season in a strong manner. Gonsolin continues to outpitch his peripherals as his 2.10 ERA is over a run lower than its estimators. A .210 BABIP and 84.3% left on base mark have been aided by the Dodgers solid defense, but he’s been blessed by Lady Luck as well. Regression does not punch a time clock, so his comeuppance may not manifest this season. Relying on streaks is risky, but facing a subpar Marlins offense, in this case, let it ride. Lopez pitched well in his last time out, but that followed a series of rough outings as he’s eclipsed his career high in innings, so fatigue could be setting in. With 140 frames so far, Lopez could be restricted the rest of the season.
Monday marks the final week before fantasy playoffs begin in ESPN standard leagues. Those needing some pitching help to defeat their Week 20 opponent will have to be patient as there aren’t any inspiring candidates. The typical options face strong lineups while the usual offenses to target are drawing a hurler well over the 50% rostership level used to delineate spot starters. The top two on the board square off in Target Field with Dylan Bundy (19% rostered in ESPN leagues) and the Twins hosting Brayan Bello (2%) and the Red Sox. Bundy has recorded a 2.33 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in August, but he’s only fanned nine in 19 1/3 innings this month. Boston’s offense has fallen short of expectations, but how comfortable are you trusting Bundy, especially since he’s not missing bats? Bello is more of a high-risk type, best deployed late in the week, but if you sense your pitching needs some help, sometimes it’s best to roll the dice early. The rookie fanned seven Blue Jays in five stanzas in his return to the majors last time out, but he’s prone to control issues.
The Reds are listing journeyman righthander Chase Anderson as their starter, rendering the Cardinals lefthanded contingent in a great spot. Leading the way is Lars Nootbaar (23%) and Nolan Gorman (14%) along with righty Paul DeJong (3%). The Phillies Brandon Marsh (7%) and Edmundo Sosa (1%) enjoy the platoon edge on Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner. The Yankees recently called up Cabrera (2%) and he’s starting to get comfortable as he took a modest four-game hitting streak into Sunday’s action. On Monday, the switch-hitter will face Jose Suarez.
Saves and closers are a common theme in this space, but a growing number of fantasy leagues score holds. With the short schedule, Monday is a good opportunity to fill holes with relievers most likely to garner a hold. Here are a half dozen names, all among the league leaders since the break, widely available and in action on Monday: Joe Mantiply (ARI), John Brebbia (SFG), Jhoan Duran (MIN), Caleb Thielbar (MIN) and Brad Boxberger (MIL).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B — 45%) at Madison Bumgarner
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF — 50%) at Dylan Bundy
Danny Jansen (TOR, C — 4%) vs. Javier Assad
Lars Nootbaar (STL, RF — 20%) vs. Zach Duke
Corey Dickerson (STL, LF — 1%) vs. Duke
Nick Senzel (CIN, CF — 2%) vs. Miles Mikolas
Donovan Solano (CIN, 2B — 2%) vs. Mikolas
Enrique Hernandez (BOS, CF — 50%) at Bundy
Kyle Farmer (CIN, SS — 23%) vs. Mikolas
Brendan Donovan (STL, 3B — 14%) vs. Duke
Chris Taylor (LAD, CF — 60%) at Pablo Lopez
Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 70%) at Corbin Burnes
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 90%) at Lopez
Brandon Drury (SD, LF — 96%) at Carlos Rodon
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 71%) at Lopez
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B — 98%) at Rodon
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 53%) vs. Mike Clevinger
Josh Bell (SD, 1B — 98%) at Rodon
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF — 95%) at Burnes
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 54%) vs. Clevinger
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.