Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Monday’s nine-game docket commences in Kauffmann Stadium for a makeup matinee at 2:10 PM ET. Michael Kopech is scheduled to take the hill for the visiting Chicago White while the Kansas City Royals will counter with Daniel Lynch. Kopech’s conversion to starter has gone according to plan. He’s pacing for around 150, twice what he threw last season as a reliever. Lynch (2% rostered in ESPN leagues) has navigated a rocky sophomore campaign, though he’s pitched to a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in August, fanning 18 with only five walks in 22 1/3 innings this month. The White Sox handle southpaws well, so backing Lynch is a risk, but it would add a little intrigue to the only game played in the afternoon.
Looking ahead, Fantasy Week 19 has only 93 games, so it behooves sage managers to take advantage of favorable early week streaming opportunities since the supply towards the end will trail the demand. Jeffrey Springs is the day’s fourth ranked pitcher. He’s available in 65% of ESPN leagues, so Springs gets the nod as the top streamer. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Los Angeles Angels, but even with Mike Trout back in the lineup, the Halos lineup is vulnerable to lefthanded pitching while offering a chance for Springs to improve on his already above average 26.5% strikeout rate.
Edward Cabrera checks in as the eighth ranked pitcher for the Miami Marlins visit to the Bay Area for the interleague tilt with the Oakland Athletics. If Cabrera were healthy all season, his rostership would be at least twice the current 38% level. The 24-year-old righty has yet to allow a run since coming off the IL in early August, punching out 21 in 14 2/3 innings. Excepting more scoreless frames is aggressive, but the Athletics sport the second lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill, so Cabrera is in a favorable position to continue to streak.
The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals open a five-game series in Wrigley Field featuring a Tuesday doubleheader. It’s always advantageous to target relievers during twin bills, so picking up Cubs closer Rowan Wick (11%) and holding him for Tuesday could prove fruitful. Doubling down with Brandon Hughes (1%) is a viable approach. Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley is on paternity leave, but he should be back for Monday’s NL Central affair.
However, he last pitched on August 16 so with a busy stretch coming up, hedging with Giovanny Gallegos (65%) or Genesis Cabrera (1%) makes sense. Nico Horner (38%) from the Cubs and Lars Nootbaar (2%) from the Cardinals have the best chance to appear to play Monday then appear in both games on Tuesday.
Noah Syndergaard has been on the hill for 28 stolen bases in his 18 starts. Even with J.T. Realmuto behind the plate for the Philadelphia Phillies, teams run on Syndergaard. On Monday, the Cincinnati Reds visit the City of Brotherly Love. TJ Friedl, Matt Reynolds, Nick Senzel and Jose Barrero are all widely available with the best chance to take advantage of the Phillies battery.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 27%) vs. Michael Kopech
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 20%) at Daniel Lynch
Manuel Margot (TB, RF — 10%) vs. Tucker Davidson
Harold Ramirez (TB, LF — 12%) vs. Davidson
Jose Miranda (MIN, 3B — 39%) vs. Cole Ragans
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 4%) at Noah Syndergaard
Jesus Aguilar (MIA, 1B — 33%) at Adam Oller
Isaac Paredes (TB, 2B — 13%) vs. Davidson
Jon Berti (MIA, 3B — 27%) at Oller
Vaughn Grissom (ATL, SS — 39%) at Roansy Contreras
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jared Walsh (LAA, 1B — 66%) at Jeffrey Springs
Josh Donaldson (NYY, 3B — 65%) vs. Max Scherzer
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 50%) at Julio Urias
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 86%) vs. Jordan Montgomery
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 63%) at Urias
Gleyber Torres (NYY, SS — 87%) vs. Scherzer
Franmil Reyes (CHC, DH — 57%) vs. Montgomery
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 90%) vs. Eric Lauer
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 88%) at Urias
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 87%) at Sonny Gray