Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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The dog days of August commence with a 10-game slate, beginning with a matchup in South Beach with the Marlins hosting the Reds. Jesus Luzardo (20% rostered in ESPN leagues) is slated to come off the IL after being out since mid-May with a forearm strain. The lefty made three rehab starts, reaching 75 pitches in the last. This is sufficient to use Luzardo at home against a vulnerable Cincinnati lineup.
Hunter Greene (29%) takes the hill for the visitors and is also in play, facing another week offense in what portends to be a game with a bunch of strikeouts and not many runs. Unfortunately, there isn’t much else by way of available pitching to spot start. The best of the rest is Brad Keller (8%) and he comes with a warning as the Kansas City Royals could deal him to a contender. Assuming Keller makes the start, the matchup isn’t ideal in Guaranteed Rate Park as the host Chicago White Sox aren’t especially productive, but they don’t fan much, and Keller’s strikeout rate is pedestrian.
In lieu of streaming starters, Monday is a good day to fortify relievers. Looking ahead to Tuesday when San Diego Padres has a doubleheader against Colorado, Padres closer Taylor Rogers has been in a rut, rendering Luis Garcia (2%) a nice speculative pickup. Garcia may even close on Monday, but with a pair on Tuesday, he’s worth the early add. Another prescient ploy is taking a chance on the setup men on teams whose closer may be dealt. The Pirates don’t play Monday but getting a jump on Yerry De Los Santos (<1%) could prove beneficial if David Bednar is dealt. The Royals Scott Barlow could be moved, elevating Josh Staumont (1%) to ninth-inning duties.
Stacking hitters is usually a tactic reserved for DFS. However, with the paucity of available pitching, and the likely holes in a fantasy lineup with an abbreviated slate, doubling down on free agent batters from the same team has the same additive effect, especially if you already have a batter or two from that team. For example, adding Jeremy Pena (58%), Aledmys Diaz (6%), Mauricio Dubon (1%), Chas McCormick (1%) and/or Jake Meyers (1%) to a lineup already with a top Houston hitter could be fruitful against Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi whose recent drop in velocity has rendered him prone to home runs. There are a pair of other duos both enjoying the platoon bump in a mini stack. The Twins Jose Miranda (17%) and Kyle Garlick (<1%) are at home facing Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal while the Giants Austin Slater (2%) and Darin Ruf (3%) have a home date with Dodgers lefty Andrew Heaney.
It’s never too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 7%) at Michael Kopech
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 50%) vs. Spenser Watkins
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 19%) vs. Brad Keller
Josh Rojas (ARI, SS — 49%) at Cal Quantrill
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 30%) vs. Antonio Senzatela
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 8%) at Quantrill
Hunter Dozier (KC, RF — 18%) at Kopech
Eric Hosmer (SD, 1B — 50%) vs. Senzatela
Kole Calhoun (TEX, RF — 5%) vs. Watkins
Carlos Santana (SEA, 1B — 46%) at Domingo German
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 52%) at Mike Clevinger
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 58%) vs. Andrew Heaney
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 56%) at Clevinger
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 85%) at Jon Gray
Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 85%) at Gray
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 73%) at Clevinger
Nelson Cruz (WSH, DH — 68%) vs. Max Scherzer
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B — 59%) at Jesus Luzardo
Trey Mancini (BAL, 1B — 76%) at Gray
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 58%) vs. Heaney