Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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It’s a busy Monday with a dozen games on the docket, all evening affairs beginning with the Marlins visiting the Reds at 6:40 PM ET. Rookie Nick Lodolo (5% rostered in ESPN leagues) gets the ball for Cincinnati against an offense that’s breaking out of a rut, but still vulnerable. Lodolo is in play as a spot starter, but Monday is a pitcher streaming paradise with most clubs sending their fourth and fifth starters to the hill for the first time after the break. Let’s review the rest in order of our Starting pitcher rankings for Monday.
Jake Odorizzi (24%) isn’t especially dominant with 36 strikeouts in 48 innings, but he limits traffic and is facing an Athletics offense with the second lowest wOBA facing righthanders. Staying in the AL West, Chris Flexen (46%) also doesn’t miss many bats, but he draws a Rangers lineup with the fourth lowest wOBA against righties with an above-average strikeout rate. Next up is the Pirates JT Brubaker (6%) for his date in Wrigley Field. Over his last seven outings, Brubaker has quietly posted a 3.19 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 44 punch outs over those 42 1/3 innings.
The remaining options all reside in the Senior Circuit with Jake Junis next on the list. Junis is the type of reclamation project the Giants have targeted the past few seasons, with good success. Junis begins the second half in the desert against a Diamondbacks offense with the 10th lowest wOBA and 10th highest K% with a righty on the hill. The Cubs Keegan Thompson (36%) went into the break with a rough outing against the Mets, but he was solid with a 1.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP including 35 strikeouts over the previous 28 frames. Thompson should get back on track at home against the soft Pirates lineup.
The final two streamers square off in American Family Field as lefty Kyle Freeland and the Rockies extend their weekend visit to Milwaukee into Monday, with Aaron Ashby scheduled to take the mound for the Brewers. Freeland has struggled at home and on the road lately, but the Brewers offense sports the eighth lowest wOBA and sixth highest K% against southpaws. Dinner will be on Ashby after he signed a contract extension, but that also shows the trust Milwaukee has in his skills. They’re better this season, but historically Colorado has been poor on the road when facing lefthanders.
Batters need some attention too. Most of the Padres hitters are rostered, but Eric Hosmer (49%) and, if his sore back allows, Trent Grisham (49%) are in a good spot facing Drew Hutchison. Nick Pivetta was struggling heading into the break, and the Guardians’ Andres Gimenez (46%) and Steven Kwan (42%) will try to keep it that way. The game appears to be slowing down a bit for Vinnie Pasquantino (8%) so he’s in play against Noah Syndergaard. Pasquantino may not be able to take advantage of Syndergaard’s inability to control the running game, but Michael A. Taylor (1%) and Nicky
Lopez (7%) are candidates to swipe a bag. Seattle’s Carlos Santana is in a good spot facing the Rangers Glenn Otto while the Red righthanded contingent of Kyle Farmer (31%), Donovan Solano (1%) and Nick Senzel (4%) face struggling Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 49%) at Nick Pivetta
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 40%) at Nick Pivetta
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 49%) at Austin Voth
Luke Voit (SD, 1B — 30%) at Drew Hutchison
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 46%) vs. Kyle Freeland
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B — 8%) vs. Noah Syndergaard
Brandon Belt (SF, 1B — 35%) at Merrill Kelly
Greg Allen (PIT, RF — 0%) at Adrian Sampson x
Carlos Santana (SEA, 1B — 46%) vs. Glenn Otto
David Peralta (ARI, LF — 14%) vs. Jakob Junis
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 58%) at Aaron Ashby
Michael Harris II (ATL, CF — 65%) at Ranger Suarez
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 60%) at Aaron Ashby
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF — 95%) at Aaron Ashby
Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 55%) at Chris Flexen
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 71%) at Aaron Ashby
C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 97%) at Aaron Ashby
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 61%) vs. Kyle Freeland
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 79%) at Ranger Suarez
Cody Bellinger (LAD, CF — 91%) vs. Josiah Gray