Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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• MLB Depth Charts for every team
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July 4 festivities begin early on Monday with an 11:05 AM ET start in the nation’s capital with the Miami Marlins visiting the Washington Nationals. Braxton Garrett (1%) is a streaming option for the visitors as his 5.24 ERA is inflated due to an unlucky .411 BABIP and an unfortunate 67.2% left on base mark. The Nationals could be without Juan Soto who left Sunday’s game early after an apparent leg injury.
The holiday slate is much busier than a typical Monday, so there are plenty of options to spot with two of the best candidates squaring off in Camden Yards. Dane Dunning (8%) gets the call for the Texas Rangers while the Baltimore Orioles give the nod to Dean Kremer (10%). Both righthanders face an offense with a wOBA against righties in the bottom third of a league as well as an above average strikeout rate.
The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers play a pair in Motown. There is a plethora of fantasy implications as all four starters merit streaming. Righty Zach Plesac (54%) is a better option for the Guardians than lefty Konnor Pilkington (1%) as the Tigers lineup against righthanders is one of the weakest in the league. Detroit will send a pair of righties in Alex Faedo (1%) and Garrett Hill (1%) with Faedo the more accomplished, hence better option against an offense without much power, but also a unit that doesn’t fan much.
Batters in the twin bill are also fantasy-worthy since they have a chance for extra at bats. Exciting rookie Riley Greene (28%) tops the list for the Tigers, along with Robbie Grossman (35%), Spencer Torkelson (48%), Jeimer Candelario (42%), Willi Castro (1%) and Eric Haase (2%). Andres Gimenez (44%) leads the way for the Guardians. He’s joined by Josh Naylor (43%), Steven Kwan (38%) and Owen Miller (39%).
Another contest with a pair of intriguing starters is an NL Central affair with southpaws Eric Lauer (66%) and Justin Steele squaring off as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs. Lauer has been in a rut, and the Brewers lefty draws a Cubs lineup sitting a sneaky 11th in wOBA against southpaws. Early in the season, this would have been a no-brainer start for Lauer, but now it’s defensible to keep him reserved if protecting ratios is needed. Steele has fanned 14 over his prior 10 2/3 innings and will face the 10th worst lineup with a lefty on the hill.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 39%) at Garrett Hill
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 42%) at Hill
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 40%) at Hill
Myles Straw (CLE, CF — 33%) at Hill
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 43%) at Hill
Robbie Grossman (DET, LF — 36%) vs. Zach Plesac
Jonathan Schoop (DET, 1B — 42%) vs. Plesac
Riley Greene (DET, CF — 28%) vs. Plesac
Willi Castro (DET, 2B — 1%) vs. Plesac
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 48%) vs. Plesac
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 58%) at Julio Urias
Daulton Varsho (ARI, C — 94%) vs. Carlos Rodon
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 64%) at Urias
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 60%) at Urias
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 58%) at Kyle Wright
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 64%) vs. Alek Manoah
C.J. Cron (COL, 1B — 97%) at Urias
Jesse Winker (SEA, LF — 84%) at Sean Manaea
Eugenio Suarez (SEA, 3B — 55%) at Manaea
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 61%) vs. Justin Steele