Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Only nine games are on Monday’s docket, with the first games beginning just after 7:00 PM ET. Even with the abbreviated schedule, there are a handful of options for those looking to get a head start with pitching in their fantasy leagues. Two of the top options are squaring off in the slate’s final game with the Orioles’ Tyler Wells (14% rostered in ESPN leagues) taking the hill in T-Mobile Park against rookie George Kirby (29% rostered) and the Mariners. Kirby has started his career with five quality starts in his first nine starts and faces a weaker lineups, so he’s preferred. However, Wells is in play in deeper leagues with three quality starts of his own over his prior three efforts. Kris Bubic (2%) and Erick Fedde (2%) are also in play, though they both carry risk. Both righthanders enjoy home field advantage against lesser lineups with Bubic and the Royals entertaining the Rangers and Fedde and the Nationals hosting the Pirates.
The marquee series of the early portion of the week features the soaring Red Sox heading north to face the Blue Jays. However, Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck will not be making the trip. With Enrique Hernandez suffering a setback during rehab, Jackie Bradley Jr. will cover center field while Christian Arroyo and Franchy Cordero will man right field. This leaves first base to Bobby Dalbec. Look for Alex Cora to play matchups in the late innings with John Schreiber named closer by Alex Cora.
Speaking of saves, short slates are perfect for adding a low rostered closer or two to your lineup. Joe Barlow (43%) is the chief option with Martin Perez starting for the Rangers against the Royals. If Lucas Giolito can get back on track, Kendall Graveman (15%) and Joe Kelly (1%) have been used to replace Liam Hendriks. Jorge Lopez’s rostership has been on the upswing, but he’s sill available in a tad over half of all ESPN leagues.
Given the primary purpose of each day’s notes is discussing what you need to know for that day’s action, looking ahead never hurts. Not only does Colorado play six home games this week, four of the probable starters are southpaws. Some potentially available righthanded hitters to consider rostering for the homestand include Connor Joe (61%), Brendan Rodgers (55%), Randal Grichuk (49%), Jose Iglesias (6%) and Yonathan Daza (2%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 2%) at Erick Fedde
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 6%) vs. Tyler Anderson
Luis Garcia (WSH, 2B — 9%) vs. Bryse Wilson
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B — 42%) at Kris Bubic
Cesar Hernandez (WSH, 2B — 12%) vs. Bryse Wilson
Yonathan Daza (COL, RF — 2%) vs. Tyler Anderson
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 36%) vs. Sonny Gray
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 26%) at Noah Syndergaard
Trayce Thompson (LAD, RF — 0%) at Chad Kuhl
Mitch Garver (TEX, C — 15%) at Kris Bubic
Christian Vazquez (BOS, C — 53%) at Kevin Gausman
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 55%) vs. Pablo Lopez
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 51%) vs. Pablo Lopez
Trevor Story (BOS, SS — 97%) at Kevin Gausman
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 64%) at Jordan Montgomery
Franmil Reyes (CLE, DH — 57%) vs. Sonny Gray
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 82%) vs. Tyler Wells
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 99%) vs. Pablo Lopez
J.D. Martinez (BOS, LF — 99%) at Kevin Gausman
Xander Bogaerts (BOS, SS — 100%) at Kevin Gausman