Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Monday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel
• MLB Depth Charts for every team
• Player news wire with fantasy spin
Monday’s action begins early with a 1:10 p.m. ET NL East affair as the Miami Marlins and New York Mets wrap up their four-game set in Citi Field. It’s early to be chasing wins, but there isn’t much by way of pitching to pick up and Mets starter David Peterson (7% rostered in ESPN leagues) is in a great spot as the Marlins offense sports the lowest wOBA and highest strikeout rate in the league with a lefty on the hill. Peterson will be opposed by Trevor Rogers, one of the most disappointing starters in the first half. Rogers signature changeup has been ineffective, and until he gets the feel back, he’ll continue to surrender a bevy of runs (8.02 ERA over his last five starts, spanning just 21 1/3 innings).
The remainder of the nine-game slate is at night. As mentioned, the pool of streaming candidates is scant, with only Boston Red Sox fill-in Josh Winckowski checking ample boxes. Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Whitlock are both still sidelined, paving the way for Winckowski to draw a home start against the Detroit Tigers and the league’s least productive lineup with a righthander on the hill. Further, the visitors fan at a 25% clip, the fifth highest mark in the league against righties.
The abbreviated schedule likely leaves lineup holes, and without starters to stream, speculating on saves is the perfect pivot. Sticking in Boston, Tanner Houck (38%) has taken over as the Red Sox closer with Matt Strahm (1%) the backup. With Liam Hendriks out indefinitely, the Chicago White Sox will entrust Kendall Graveman (16%) with the ninth inning. Tampa Bay will use a committee to replace Andrew Kittredge with Colin Poche (4%), Jason Adam (7%) and Brooks Raley (2%) heading the list. Please note, after spending the weekend on the paternity list, Josh Hader will return to the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday so those picking up Devin Williams should consider dropping him for one of the available closers.
Jon Berti stole three bases as I was preparing yesterday’s notes, giving him 14 in June. He’s currently available in 86% of ESPN leagues. Granted, stolen bases are thought of as more as a category league asset, but Berti is a Top-100 player in points leagues so far this month.
It’s not often PNC Park is discussed as a place for hitting, but on Monday’s abbreviated schedule, it could be one of the busier venues with JT Brubaker taking the hill for the Pittsburgh Pirates, to be opposed by the Chicago Cubs promising, but still raw Caleb Kilian. The Pirates Diego Castillo, Michael Chavis, Daniel Vogelbach and Yu Chang are all available in over 95% of ESPN leagues. For the Cubs, Christopher Morel (32%) is the top target with Nico Hoerner (7%) and Jonathan Villar (4%) in the mix.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.
Andrew Vaughn (CHW, LF — 46% rostered) vs. Jose Berrios
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 9%) vs. Alex Faedo
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 22%) vs. Berrios
Tyrone Taylor (MIL, LF — 3%) vs. Miles Mikolas
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B — 2%) vs. Caleb Kilian
Robbie Grossman (DET, LF — 36%) at Josh Winckowski
Jarren Duran (BOS, CF — 1%) vs. Faedo
Victor Reyes (DET, RF — 0%) at Winckowski
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 38%) at Yu Darvish
MJ Melendez (KC, C — 16%) at Noah Syndergaard
Joey Gallo (NYY, LF — 53% rostered) at Shane McClanahan
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 54%) at Corbin Burnes
Tyler O’Neill (STL, LF — 72%) at Burnes
Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 92%) vs. Gerrit Cole
Brandon Crawford (SF, SS — 50%) at Max Fried
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 62%) at Fried
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 50%) at Burnes
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B — 97%) at David Peterson
Josh Donaldson (NYY, 3B — 70%) at McClanahan
Joc Pederson (SF, CF — 75%) at Fried