Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for MLB games Thursday
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Mike Sheets
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Miles Mikolas (3% rostered in ESPN leagues) continues to roll right along. He now has a 1.52 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP across five starts, including just two earned runs allowed over his past 19⅓ innings. It would be nice if the right-hander missed more bats (7.6 K/9), but he’s getting things done in other ways. Most notably, his 1.2 BB/9 and 21.2% hard-hit rate allowed both rank in baseball’s overall top eight. Although Thursday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants isn’t particularly favorable, Mikolas has recently shut down two teams (the New York Mets and Miami Marlins) which sport top-five wOBAs against righties this season, so he’s still worth targeting as a streaming option.
While Mikolas’ value lies in his ability to control the strike zone and limit hard contact, Jesus Luzardo (50% rostered) is blowing hitters away. Thanks to an uptick in velocity and relying more on his curveball, the 24-year-old has fanned 28 batters in just 20 1/3 frames to go along with a 3.10 ERA. In his four starts, he’s surrendered multiple earned runs only once. Luzardo’s roster percentage is on the rise, so the window to scoop him up is closing. Fire him up Thursday, even in a tough matchup against the San Diego Padres.
Hunter Greene is known for his big-time velocity, but that velocity has cratered of late. After averaging nearly 100 mph on his heater in his first two starts, his fastball has dropped to 95.8 mph and 96.7 mph, respectively, in his last two outings. Not surprisingly, Greene was roughed up in those starts, ballooning his ERA up to 6.00. While the big right-hander tries to work things out, he’s a hurler we can stack against when he matches up with the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.
In a very exciting Brewers rotation, Adrian Houser (11%) is by far the least exciting option. Still, he’s managed a 2.53 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across four starts, including six shutout innings against the Chicago Cubs in his last time out. Now he gets a prime matchup against a Cincinnati Reds offense that continues to flounder. Over the season’s first month, the Reds ranked last in baseball with a 68 wRC+ and a 25.2% strikeout rate.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 8%) vs. Greene
Cesar Hernandez (WSH, 2B — 9%) at Antonio Senzatela
Elias Diaz (COL, C — 18%) vs. Aaron Sanchez
Maikel Franco (WSH, 3B — 6%) at Senzatela
Gary Sanchez (MIN, C — 41%) at Spenser Watkins
Garrett Hampson (COL, CF — 1%) vs. Sanchez
Jesus Aguilar (MIA, 1B — 34%) at Nick Martinez
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 25%) at Robbie Ray
Lane Thomas (WSH, CF — 1%) at Senzatela
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 31%) vs. Sanchez
Franmil Reyes (CLE, DH — 73%) vs. Jose Berrios
Owen Miller (CLE, 2B — 70%) vs. Berrios
Myles Straw (CLE, CF — 68%) vs. Berrios
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF — 65%) vs. Berrios
Mark Canha (NYM, LF — 65%) at Aaron Nola
Jose Ramirez (CLE, 3B — 100%) vs. Berrios
Eduardo Escobar (NYM, 2B — 85%) at Nola
Julio Rodriguez (SEA, RF — 63%) vs. Shane McClanahan
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 68%) at Logan Webb
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 85%) vs. McClanahan