Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Friday presents the usual 15-games, with all being evening affairs. It’s a frustrating slate for streaming pitchers but there are a few to consider. Spencer Strider (15% rostered in ESPN leagues) should be stretched out to work at least five frames when the Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates. The visitors tote the fifth lowest wOBA and strikeout rate against righthanders into the affair.
For the season, the Seattle Mariners have been a below average offense with a lefty on the hill, though they did manage to tally four runs in two innings against Rich Hill in Fenway Park last month. The rematch is in T-Mobile Stadium, but that’s a park upgrade for Hill (5% rostered). Look for Hill to enact a measure of revenge for the surging Red Sox, whose righty-heavy lineup should be able to score against southpaw Marco Gonzales.
Tylor Megill (61%) is making his return after missing a month with right biceps tendinitis. It’s always a risk starting a pitcher after a long layoff, but Megill draws a struggling Los Angeles Angels lineup which still could be without Mike Trout. The Angels fan the fourth most in the league against righthanders, so Megill should be deployed immediately, and picked up if available.
There are three under-the-radar offenses facing weak pitching to target for streaming or DFS purposes, beginning with the Tampa Bay Rays at home against Minnesota Twins lefty Devin Smeltzer. Manuel Margot (43%), Yandy Diaz (33%), Harold Ramirez (1%) and Isaac Paredes (1%) all enjoy the platoon edge. Paul Blackburn has struggled in his last two starter, albeit against the Astros and Red Sox. Even so, the Cleveland Guardians have been surprisingly productive, rendering Steven Kwan (41%), Amed Rosario (39%), Josh Naylor (38%), Andres Gimenez (33%) and Oscar Gonzalez (2%) as solid options. Lastly, a trio of righthanded Kansas City Royals are in a favorable spot with Baltimore Orioles lefty Bruce Zimmermann on the hill. Don’t hesitate to trust Hunter Dozier (24%), Michael A. Taylor (1%) or Emmanuel Rivera (1%).
There are also a few standalone hitters available for pickup. Josh Rojas (36%) qualifies at four positions so he can easily be fit in for his matchup facing Kyle Gibson. Teammate Alek Thomas (12%) is beginning to heat up as well. Nick Senzel (2%) doesn’t have the platoon edge on the St. Louis Cardinals’ Andre Pallante, but the Reds outfielder is showing signs of breaking out and could be more than a one-game pickup. Kole Calhoun (17%) has cooled from his recent heater, but he’s still in good shape facing Chicago White Sox righthander Davis Martin.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Mitch Garver (TEX, C — 20%) at Davis Martin
Santiago Espinal (TOR, 3B — 28%) at Elvin Rodriguez
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 29%) at Erick Fedde
Carlos Santana (KC, 1B — 42%) vs. Bruce Zimmermann
Tommy Pham (CIN, LF — 39%) at Andre Pallante
Nomar Mazara (SD, RF — 0%) vs. Chad Kuhl
Ji-Man Choi (TB, 1B — 7%) at Devin Smeltzer
Patrick Wisdom (CHC, 3B — 50%) at Luis Severino
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 66%) at Joe Musgrove
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 58%) at Musgrove
Harrison Bader (STL, CF — 55%) vs. Luis Castillo
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS — 57%) vs. Walker Buehler
Brendan Rodgers (COL, 2B — 56%) at Musgrove
Dylan Carlson (STL, CF — 54%) vs. Castillo
Connor Joe (COL, LF — 72%) at Musgrove
Jeremy Pena (HOU, SS — 70%) vs. Pablo Lopez
Frank Schwindel (CHC, 1B — 59%) at Severino