Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Friday features an unusual 14-game slate with the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox having a rare Friday off day. Everything will be played under the lights. There are a handful of streaming options, but the quality isn’t great so don’t wait all day to choose your streamers. Jon Gray (50% rostered in ESPN leagues) tops the list when the Texas Rangers continue a weekend set on the road against the Oakland Athletics. Thus far, Gray has not thrived as many expected after getting away from Coors Field for half his starts. Friday is an ideal spot to get started in that direction against an Athletics lineup sporting the league’s worst wOBA facing right-handers, while fanning a generous 25% of the time in that scenario.
Gray will be opposed by Cole Irvin (10% rostered). The soft-throwing lefty only fans hitters at a 16% clip and the Athletics punch out at a below average rate against southpaws, but Irvin is still in play as a spot starter. Innings and run prevention are integral to fantasy point scoring while Irvin doesn’t rack up strikeouts, he has posted three quality starts in his six outings, a boon to points scoring. The Rangers offense has performed a bit below average on the road against lefties.
Next up on the streamer list is the Tampa Bay Rays’ latest success story converting relievers to starters as Jeffrey Springs (5%) has made the transition. Last time out, Springs earned his first win as a starter, tossing 5⅔ innings against the Baltimore Orioles, fanning seven along the way. Starting Springs against the Yankees could be your play, as they have been in a rut for the past week and without Giancarlo Stanton, sidelined with ankle inflammation. If starting Springs against the Yankees is too daunting, Austin Gomber (7%) has a winnable road date against a Washington Nationals club recording the fourth worst wOBA against lefthanders.
The San Francisco Giants’ batters are ideal targets for streaming hitters against the Cincinnati Reds. Not only do they enjoy a huge park upgrade, chances are they won’t be facing a prohibitive arm. The left-handers to deploy against a right-hander are Mike Yastrzemski (66%), Brandon Crawford (55%), Joc Pederson (45%) and Luis Gonzalez (4%). Righty swingers Wilmer Flores (60%), Thairo Estrada (55%), Darin Ruf (9%) and Evan Longoria (1%) are in play with a southpaw on the hill.
Back in drafting season, there were two approaches with respect to Justin Verlander. Some were leery as no one had ever come back and dominated after having Tommy John so late in their career. Then there were those contending if anyone can do it, it’s Verlander. Thus far, the latter group has been rewarded. However, everyone can take advantage of Verlander’s prowess with some action like strikeout props. As has been mentioned frequently in this space, betting the under on punch outs has been a wise play through the first quarter of the season. Friday is a great time to flip the script and take the over on the odds-defying veteran. Verlander’s 26% strikeout rate is fine, but it’s 10 points below his pre-Tommy John mark. That said, his slider has always been his wipeout pitch, and it wasn’t effective early on. Over his last two outings, Verlander is back to getting a plethora of swinging strikes on his slider and he looks primed to go on one of his usual double-digit strikeout games streaks.
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Amed Rosario (CLE, SS — 41%) at Alex Faedo
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF — 50%) at Faedo
Jesus Aguilar (MIA, 1B — 39%) at Ian Anderson
Bobby Dalbec (BOS, 1B — 9%) vs. Kyle Bradish
Lane Thomas (WSH, CF — 1%) vs. Austin Gomber
Andrew McCutchen (MIL, LF — 33%) at Dakota Hudson
Avisail Garcia (MIA, RF — 44%) at Anderson
Gary Sanchez (MIN, C — 50%) vs. Brad Keller
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS — 83%) vs. Justin Verlander
Tyler Stephenson (CIN, C — 89%) vs. Carlos Rodon
Sean Murphy (OAK, C — 73%) vs. Jon Gray
Joey Votto (CIN, 1B — 62%) vs. Rodon
Adam Frazier (SEA, 2B — 64%) vs. Verlander
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF — 92%) at Sean Manaea
Joey Gallo (NYY, LF — 57%) at Jeffrey Springs
Brandon Drury (CIN, LF — 50%) vs. Rodon
Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 55%) vs. Shane Bieber
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 53%) at Cole Irvin