Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Friday’s slate opens with the traditional “Chicago Cubs are home for the weekend” matinee. The series is a rematch from last weekend when the Cubs traveled to the desert for a set against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last time out, Arizona starter Humberto Castellanos (1% rostered in ESPN leagues) set his 2022 high-water mark, punching out five Cubs in 5⅓ innings, but he also surrendered a pair of homers. However, the Cubs have slugged homers at the sixth-lowest rate versus right-handers while also fanning the most. This sets Castellanos up for another strong performance, and he merits some streaming consideration.
Streaming pitchers is an inexact science. All one can do is trust the process and hope things work out in a positive manner, accepting some hiccups along the way. Tyler Wells (9% rostered) looked to be in a great spot in his most recent outing, facing a weak Detroit Tigers lineup, but he surrendered three runs in four frames. On Friday, Wells draws a vulnerable Tampa Bay Rays squad in Baltimore. The visitors have a below-average wOBA facing right-handers while whiffing at the fifth-highest clip in those games. Wells has been very comfortable pitching in the renovated Camden Yards, rendering just two earned runs across 15 stanzas.
After limiting the Oakland Athletics to one hit over six scoreless innings in his major league debut, Chase Silseth (4%) earned another start, this time facing those same Athletics. The first encounter was on the road, but this time it will be in Angels Stadium, where the Angels have won 12 out of 19 games. Before he was called up, Silseth was dominant at Double-A Rocket City, striking out 37 over just 26 frames. Meanwhile, Oakland has the 10th-highest strikeout rate facing right-handers.
The New York Mets play half their games in one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the league, so they’ll welcome a weekend visit to Coors Field. Many of their better batters are obviously unavailable in most ESPN leagues, but it’s worth checking out Brandon Nimmo (70%), Eduardo Escobar (68%) and Mark Canha (62%) in shallower formats. Dominic Smith (2%) and J.D. Davis (1%) are two chief targets, with Smith likely to start Friday against right-hander German Marquez and Davis probably getting the nod on Saturday with southpaw Austin Gomber on the hill.
While many will be looking to Coors Field for their streaming hitters and DFS points, the Tigers are an under-the-radar option as they face Aaron Civale, who has surrendered six earned runs in three of his past four outings. DFS prices will allow everyone in a stack. Jeimer Candelario (50%), Jonathan Schoop (45%), Robbie Grossman (42%) and Willi Castro (2%) are the best batters to target for a boost in daily leagues. Other standalone hitters in favorable spots include Alek Thomas (21%) and Chas McCormick (2%).
It’s not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Christian Walker (ARI, 1B — 6%) at Kyle Hendricks
Rafael Ortega (CHC, CF — 1%) vs. Castellanos
Frank Schwindel (CHC, 1B — 49%) vs. Castellanos
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B — 35%) at Wells
Abraham Toro (SEA, 2B — 1%) at Tanner Houck
David Peralta (ARI, LF — 13%) at Hendricks
Pavin Smith (ARI, RF — 6%) at Hendricks
Jonathan Villar (CHC, 3B — 5%) vs. Castellanos
Juan Yepez (STL, 1B — 21%) at Zach Thompson
Yoan Moncada (CHW, 3B — 75%) at Nestor Cortes
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 53%) at Cristian Javier
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 52%) vs. Sean Manaea
Yasmani Grandal (CHW, C — 87%) at Cortes
Brandon Crawford (SF, SS — 57%) vs. Manaea
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 72%) at Trevor Rogers
Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS — 76%) at Rogers
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR, LF — 90%) vs. Luis Castillo
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C — 80%) at Eric Lauer
Gavin Lux (LAD, SS — 52%) at Ranger Suarez