Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.
Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Friday’s slate begins with three games in the 6:30 PM ET block. Action commences in Pittsburgh as the Pirates host the Diamondbacks. The evening’s final contest gets underway at 10:15 PM ET when the Giants host the Marlins.
There was some question if Sclafani” title=”Anthony DeSclafani posters”>Anthony DeSclafani (50.4%) would be able to start Friday after he reported lingering effects from dropping a piano bench on his foot a few weeks ago, costing him a toenail. Giants manager Gable Kapler announced DeSclafani is good to go for his home date with the Marlins. The Marlins tote the sixth lowest wOBA versus right-handers into Oracle Park. DeSclafani will be facing Sandy-Alcantara” title=”Sandy Alcantara posters”>Sandy Alcantara, which isn’t ideal, but Alcantara hasn’t been as sharp as previous campaigns.
Reid Detmers‘ 4.89 ERA is misleading as he’s been snake bit with a .372 BABIP and 63.5% left on base mark. Regression doesn’t punch a time clock, and doesn’t care about the opponent, but it’s coming. On Friday, Detmers is in a good spot to drop his ERA on his own with a home date against a Twins offense posting the third lowest wOBA versus southpaws along with the second highest strikeout rate. Not only is Detmers a solid streamer, but he also makes for a great DFS pitcher in GPP contests.
We all know the saying, “Good pitching beats good hitting.” What happens when subpar pitching and hitting meet? Jake Irvin (2.4%) will make his fourth career start on Friday when the Nationals host the Tigers. Irvin has sandwiched a quality between two outings in which he was lifted in the fifth inning. He’s fanned 14 in 15 1/3 stanzas, but he’s also issued eight free passes. He makes the streamer list by virtue of facing a Detroit lineup ranking in the basement when it comes to wOBA against righty pitching.
Suarez” title=”Ranger Suarez posters”>Ranger Suarez (24.9%) is slated to make his second start of the season when the Phillies try to snap a four-game losing streak. The club is coming off being swept in San Francisco. In fact, Suarez started the last game Philadelphia won, a road victory in Colorado, though Suarez wasn’t involved in the decision as he pitched just four frames, yielding three earned runs. Suarez will square off with the new-look Cubs who have recently called up Matt Mervis and Christopher Morel. It won’t be easy as the Cubs have hit left-handers well, but Suarez’s high ranking is driven by his track record and splits facing lefty pitching being unreliable, even a quarter of the way into the season.
Fridays are a good opportunity to fortify hitting as fantasy teams often have easy cuts for batters pitched up exclusively to help on Thursday. Here are some sticks to consider as pickups. Austin Hays (27.3%) is quietly second in wOBA among Orioles regulars. He’ll enjoy the platoon edge on homer-prone Yusei Kikuchi. Brenton Doyle (1.1%) may have been released with the Rockies on the road this weekend, but Colorado begins the weekend series in Arlington with lefty Marin Perez on the hill. Not only will Doyle benefit from the platoon edge, but he has six steals in just 19 games. Riley Greene has quietly posted a 1.033 OPS with three steals in May. He’s in a good spot Friday night facing Jake Irvin.
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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.
By Todd Zola
A light Thursday schedule helps keep the list of tired relievers to just David Robertson who was used for the second straight day in the Mets’ 3-2 home win over the Rays. Robertson threw 11 pitches while collecting his eighth save yesterday, a day after tossing 17 while garnering the win on Tuesday. Adam Ottavino had yesterday off after working the prior two days so he should be set for a possible save tonight when the Mets host the Guardians in the opener of an interleague set. Brooks Raley is off the IL, so he’s back in the Mets holds mix, joining Smith” title=”Drew Smith posters”>Drew Smith as a setup man.
The White Sox remain the most likely team to rack up wins this weekend as they continue to host the Royals at Guaranteed Rate Park. Kendall Graveman has logged the last couple of saves for the club with Keynan Middleton, Reynaldo Lopez, Joe Kelly and Aaron Bummer in line for holds. The White Sox bullpen should get a boost early next week with Liam Hendriks slated to return.
The Astros are only 11-11 at home, but they have a chance to eclipse the .500 mark with a series at Minute Maid Park against the Athletics. Ryan Pressly hasn’t pitched since Sunday, so he’s fresh for ninth-inning duties. Bryan Abreu has emerged as the top setup man with seven holds along with 36 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Hector Neris has six holds while Rafael Montero appears to be back on track and could be trusted again in late-game scenarios.
This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player’s ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher’s pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher’s total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher’s days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 9%) vs. Schmidt” title=”Clarke Schmidt posters”>Clarke Schmidt
Oswaldo Cabrera (NYY, RF — 3%) at Ben Lively
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF — 16%) vs. Zack Greinke
Harrison Bader (NYY, CF — 30%) at Lively
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF — 49%) at Suarez” title=”Ranger Suarez posters”>Ranger Suarez
Josh Naylor (CLE, 1B — 43%) at Carlos Carrasco
Riley Greene (DET, CF — 16%) at Jake Irvin
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS — 49%) at Lively
Kyle Higashioka (NYY, C — 0%) at Lively
Jake Burger (CHW, 3B — 5%) vs. Greinke
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B — 56%) at Yusei Kikuchi
Willy Adames (MIL, SS — 83%) at Shane McClanahan
Cody Bellinger (CHC, CF — 87%) at Suarez” title=”Ranger Suarez posters”>Ranger Suarez
Jorge Mateo (BAL, SS — 68%) at Kikuchi
Christian Yelich (MIL, LF — 80%) at McClanahan
Thairo Estrada (SF, 2B — 78%) vs. Sandy-Alcantara” title=”Sandy Alcantara posters”>Sandy Alcantara
Jake Cronenworth (SD, 2B — 80%) vs. James Paxton
Teoscar Hernandez (SEA, RF — 60%) at Bryce Elder
Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 70%) at Suarez
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B — 83%) vs. Tony Gonsolin
New York Yankees at Lively
Houston Astros vs. Ken Waldichuk
Texas Rangers vs. Karl Kauffmann
PROJECTION
THE BAT X sees Hampson putting up 1.01 hits for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 68.1% of the time. THE BAT X believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $29.79.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
95% of the time this year, Hampson has mainly batted in the back-half of the batting order, but for this matchup, he is listed in the No. 1 spot in the batting order.
THE BAT X projection system ranks Oracle Park as the No. 4 park in the league for right-handed batting average.
The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 18.2 mph in this game, the best of the day for bats.
Hampson has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his fly balls (35.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s second-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
For this year, 15% of the time Hampson has been pulled from the game early while facing a right-handed pitcher.
Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this matchup expects the lowest temperature on the schedule today at 59 degrees.