Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games

More Teams. More Games.

Royals lefty Cole Ragans has been a top starting pitcher since the trade from Texas, and fantasy managers can trust him in a rematch with the Astros. Video by Eric Karabell (0:38)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Friday’s action gets started at 2:20 PM ET with a matinee in Wrigley Field, featuring the Chicago Cubs hosting the Colorado Rockies. The remaining 14 games are all evening affairs.

Andrew Abbott (41.5%) checks in as the slate’s top-ranked pitching streamer, but it comes with a word of warning. The ranking is based on his season-long body of work; his recent efforts have been subpar. In most cases, it’s best to avoid recency bias, but sometimes young pitchers experience a drop in performance once they’ve reached an uncharted number of innings. Last season, Abbott tossed a combined 118 innings in the minor leagues. So far this year, the 24-year-old lefty has compiled 156 2/3 frames between the minors and majors. Over his past five starts, Abbott has posted a 6.33 ERA and 1.83 WHIP in 21 1/3 innings. He’s still piling up strikeouts with 24 in that span, but 15 walks have increased traffic and runs, not to mention driving up his pitch count. In Abbott’s favor is facing a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup walking at an extremely low 6.4% clip against southpaws over the last month while fanning at a generous 27.1% rate in that span.

Next up is another rookie with Sawyer Gipson-Long (8.6%) getting the ball for a road date with the Oakland Athletics. Gipson-Long was promoted in early September and he’s made two impressive starts, albeit facing second division lineups with games against the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Angels. He punched out 16 in 10 total innings, with 11 coming over five stanzas in Anaheim last time out. The 25-year-old right-hander is in a great spot to open his career with three straight solid outings facing an Oakland offense with the third worst wOBA facing righties over the past month, buoyed by striking out 25% of the time in that stretch.

Friday night is going to be an intriguing start for Cole Ragans (44.7%). The two-time Tommy John surgery recoveree is enjoying a breakout season. He began the year in the Texas Rangers bullpen, but after posting a lackluster 5.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 17 appearances as a reliever, he was traded to the Kansas City Royals who optioned him to Triple-A to stretch out as a starter. The move proved prescient as Ragans has registered a sparkling 2.28 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts, fanning a hefty 76 batters in 59 1/3 innings. In his last outing, Ragans fanned seven with two walks in six innings at home against the Houston Astros. This usually portends a solid outing, but the potent Houston lineup scored five runs. Ragans and the Astros run it back Friday in Minute Maid Park. Ragans performance in the rotation warrants a spot in a fantasy lineup, but there is clear risk facing Houston in their yard. His high strikeouts and low walks in the prior meeting are encouraging, and enough to keep Ragans active, unless you are in a close ratio battle or are in a league where picking up an alternative is an option.

Switching to hitting, Atlanta Braves catcher Sean Murphy (90.8%) continues to be rostered in almost every ESPN leagues, despite posting a dismal .172/.318/.279 line since the All-Star break. His playing time has been cut back in September, in part due to performance, but also to have him fresh for the playoffs since he’s solid defensively. That said, it’s best to wait a day before looking elsewhere for a fantasy backstop since he’ll be enjoying the platoon edge on Patrick Corbin on Friday. With most of the Atlanta hitters already rostered, Orlando Arcia (30.6%) is the best means of getting some exposure to a potent lineup in a great spot.

Some other hitters in a favorable position to fortify a fantasy lineup include St. Louis Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar (25%) facing San Diego Padres starter Matt Waldron, Pittsburgh Pirates leadoff hitter Ke’Bryan Hayes (22.9%) stepping in the box against the Reds’ Abbott and the Reds Jake Fraley (15.1%) drawing Pirates righty Luis Ortiz.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 8%) vs. Davis Daniel

Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 44%) at Johnny Cueto

TJ Friedl (CIN, LF — 22%) vs. Luis Ortiz

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B — 49%) vs. Daniel

Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 15%) vs. Ortiz

Sal Frelick (MIL, CF — 8%) at Cueto

Ke’Bryan Hayes (PIT, 3B — 21%) at Abbott

Joey Votto (CIN, 1B — 6%) vs. Ortiz

Mike Tauchman (CHC, LF — 3%) vs. Noah Davis

Daulton Varsho (TOR, C — 74%) at Tyler Glasnow

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B — 52%) at Glasnow

Matt Chapman (TOR, 3B — 68%) at Glasnow