Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games

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Padres RHP Seth Lugo has delivered a solid, underrated fantasy season and he should pitch well this weekend against the Athletics. Video by Eric Karabell (0:42)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Friday’s schedule consists of 15 evening games, with action beginning at 6:35 PM ET with the New York Yankees visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates. Overall, the slate has a solid set of streaming opportunities. With only three days left in the first round of ESPN fantasy baseball playoffs, taking advantage of the strong Friday inventory could result in less scrambling over the weekend.

Tarik Skubal (39.8% rostered) is the top candidate as he takes the hill in Anaheim for the opener of a weekend set between the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels. Skubal didn’t debut until early July after undergoing flexor tendon surgery late last season. It’s only been 12 starts, but Skubal is exhibiting the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate of his career. Most importantly, the home run issues plaguing him early in his career appear to be rectified. The southpaw has a juicy matchup against a lineup with the sixth lowest wOBA facing left-handers over the past month. The Angels will be without Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani hasn’t served as designated hitter since September 3.

Bobby Miller (43.8%) has pitched at least six frames for six straight starts, though he’s surrendered at least four runs in half of them. He’s coming off the best game of the stretch, a seven-inning, eight-strikeout performance on the road against the Washington Nationals. Miller draws a Seattle Mariners club in the throes of a playoff race. Their lineup has been more productive lately, but they’re still fanning at an elevated clip.

Griffin Canning (13.6%) has lost his past two starts, but he’s pitched well enough to win with only five runs allowed in the combined 11 1/3 innings. The Angels offense has provided limited support, though that isn’t likely to change much facing Skubal. However, Canning opposes an equally unimpressive offense with the Tigers sporting the eighth lowest wOBA and second highest strikeout rate facing right-handers for the past month.

The Minnesota Twins will recall Bailey Ober (22.8%) for the second game of their four-game set with the Chicago White Sox in the Windy City. Ober was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul after a rough stretch in the second half. Trusting him in his return is a risk, but Ober will take on a White Sox lineup with the third poorest wOBA versus righties over the last month.

Rounding out Friday’s quintet of top spot starting options is Seth Lugo (31.5%) for his road date against the Oakland Athletics. Lugo struggled in his last outing with the Houston Astros plating six runs in 4 1/3 stanzas, but the San Diego Padres right-hander recorded a 1.24 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his prior five outings, fanning 27 with only six walks in those 29 innings. The Athletics have recorded the 10th least productive wOBA and sixth poorest strikeout rate with a righty on the hill over the past month.

All eyes remain on Coors Field with the Colorado Rockies having two home series this week. The San Francisco Giants are the weekend guests with Mike Yastrzemski (9.2%) and Joc Pederson (5.7%) the top candidates to leverage their platoon edge over Peter Lambert.

Elsewhere, Brandon Lowe (54.2%) is in a good spot facing Jack Flaherty while Royce Lewis (43.3%) and Edouard Julien (3.5%) enjoy a favorable matchup with Jesse Scholtens. In addition, Michael Brantley (9.4%), Sal Frelick (7.6%) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (5.1%) are all in a position to fortify a fantasy lineup facing lesser pitching.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Wilmer Flores (SF, 2B — 35%) at Peter Lambert

Royce Lewis (MIN, SS — 42%) at Jesse Scholtens

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 5%) at Peter Lambert

Mitch Haniger (SF, RF — 6%) at Peter Lambert

Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF — 7%) at Peter Lambert

Thairo Estrada (SF, 2B — 42%) at Peter Lambert

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 7%) at Jesse Scholtens

Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B — 44%) vs. Jake Irvin

Michael Brantley (HOU, LF — 10%) at Zack Greinke

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B — 48%) at Jesse Scholtens

Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS — 82%) at David Peterson

Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 73%) at Lucas Giolito