Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games

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Cubs RHP Kyle Hendricks continues to outfox hitters and induce soft contact and he certainly has a nice matchup in Pittsburgh versus the Pirates. Video by Eric Karabell (0:36)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Friday presents a full 15-game slate with action beginning with a trio of games at 6:40 PM ET. The best streaming option from the early set is Braxton Garrett (26.8% rostered), taking the hill in South Beach for the Miami Marlins to begin a series with the Washington Nationals. Last week, Garrett showed his breakthrough season should be taken seriously with five shutout innings against the Houston Astros, followed by a quality start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Astros and Dodgers have the third and fourth highest wOBA versus left-handers, so it was an impressive week for Garrett. It doesn’t get much easier against the Nationals and the seventh most productive lineup facing southpaws, but Garrett has earned starting status, especially at pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park.

Bryce Miller (35.1%) checks in one spot higher in Friday’s rankings, earning him the nod as the ledger’s top streamer. The Seattle Mariners 25-year-old righty appeared to hit the rookie wall with a pair of outings where he allowed six earned runs in each, but he rebounded with three solid outings. In this span, which includes facing the Baltimore Orioles and Astros, Miller posted a 1.06 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, with 14 punch outs to just three walks and no homers allowed in 17 frames. Miller is in a favorable spot to continue the role with a home date against the Kansas City Royals who sport the fifth worst wOBA with a right-hander on the hill.

It’s been a dispiriting week and disappointing season for the Los Angeles Angels. Mike Trout played in one game before returning to the IL and it was announced Shohei Ohtani has a torn UCL, so he won’t pitch again this season. If there is a team experiencing a more frustrating summer, it is the New York Mets. This weekend, the teams play a three-game interleague set in Citi Field, with Chase Silseth (10.4%) getting the ball to open the series for the visitors. Silseth is coming off a rough outing where he allowed five earned runs in 3 2/3 stanzas to the Tampa Bay Rays, but in his prior four starts, Silseth recorded a 1.59 ERA and .88 WHIP with 31 strikeouts to just five walks in 22 2/3 frames. Silseth should be able to get back on track Friday, with a favorable matchup against the Mets.

Christopher Sanchez has pitched better than his 1-3 record suggests. The Philadelphia Phillies are 6-6 in his 12 starts, over which Sanchez has registered a 3.36 ERA, supported by a 3.44 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA. Facing the St. Louis Cardinals will be a challenge, but the Phillies have won Sanchez’s three August starts and will be favored to make it four.

Oddly, Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland has fared better at home than on the road, fanning more while yielding homers at a lower rate in Coors Field. This is sample size noise and not a reason to target Freeland in away starts. The reason for eyeballing the Baltimore Orioles lineup in their date with the Rockies in Camden Yards is several right-handed batters will enjoy the platoon edge on the vulnerable lefty. Ryan Mountcastle (63.1%), Austin Hays (25.9%), Jordan Westburg (4.9%) and Ramon Urias (.9%) are all in line for productive evenings with Freeland on the hill.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Tommy Pham (ARI, LF — 8%) vs. Brett Kennedy

Andrew McCutchen (PIT, LF — 16%) vs. Kyle Hendricks

Austin Hays (BAL, LF — 26%) vs. Kyle Freeland

Tyler O’Neill (STL, LF — 18%) at Cristopher Sanchez

Jake Burger (MIA, 3B — 15%) vs. Joan Adon

Elvis Andrus (CHW, SS — 4%) vs. Zach Neal

Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 7%) vs. Dane Dunning

TJ Friedl (CIN, LF — 22%) at Brandon Pfaadt

Carlos Santana (MIL, 1B — 21%) vs. Yu Darvish

Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 27%) vs. Framber Valdez

Sean Murphy (ATL, C — 96%) at Logan Webb

Jonah Heim (TEX, C — 82%) at Sonny Gray