Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Todd Zola

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Friday’s slate is the standard 15 games, but a few contests have unusual start times. There’s nothing odd about an early 2:20 p.m. ET Wrigley Field game, this time featuring the Chicago Cubs hosting the Cleveland Indians. However, a 5:10 p.m. ET first pitch in Great American Ball Park between the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres, followed an hour later when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals are both different than normal.

A pair of rookies sharing a last name (and first initial) check in as the day’s top two streamers. Let’s start with Bobby Miller (44.6% rostered) as he has the easier matchup when the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Kansas City Royals. The 24-year-old right-hander has struggled over his last two outings, yielding 13 total runs in 9⅔ innings. However, he faced the Houston Astros and San Francisco Giants, a pair of offenses more potent than the Royals who sport the third-lowest wOBA facing righties. Kansas City fans at an above average 24.5% clip, aiding Miller’s cause.

Bryce Miller (41.2%) is also coming off a subpar effort, but he was pitching well before the Baltimore Orioles tallied three runs in 4⅓ frames in his last outing. The Seattle Mariners right-hander draws a pesky Tampa Bay Rays lineup, albeit at home in T-Mobile Park. Shane McClanahan will take the hill for the visitors, so even though this Miller is ranked one spot ahead of the Dodgers version, Bobby is preferred over Bryce.

In the event you prefer to avoid Miller’s Crossing altogether, James Paxton (32.9%) has been a strikeout machine this season, fanning batters at a 31.8% clip, fifth-highest among pitchers compiling at least 40 innings. It will be a good test for Paxton as he’ll face a Toronto Blue Jays lineup with one of the lower strikeout rates against southpaw pitching. Even so, Paxton has also been giving the Boston Red Sox innings, which is integral to fantasy scoring and the Blue Jays offense is surprisingly below average.

Griffin Canning (14.4%) at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks appears like a stream-worthy matchup, and it is, but the Diamondbacks have been quietly productive against right-handers. However, Canning has recorded a 2.25 ERA and .89 WHIP over his last six starts, spanning 36 frames. The success is supported with 37 punchouts to only six free passes over this stretch.

Colorado Rockies lefty Austin Gomber has registered an 8.72 ERA and 1.77 WHIP at home. On Friday, the Detroit Tigers open a series in Coors Field. Considering Detroit has averaged the third-fewest runs per game in MLB, it’s rare to target its hitters. However, the right-handed contingent is in a great spot, including Javier Baez (13.9%), Spencer Torkelson (8.4%), Matt Vierling (1%), Andy Ibanez (1%), Jonathan Schoop (0.7%) and Miguel Cabrera (0.6%).

Most of the Los Angeles Dodgers batters are already rostered, but adding James Outman (23.3%) or David Peralta (.8%) could prove fruitful as they enjoy the platoon edge on Royals righty Jordan Lyles in what should be another high-scoring contest for the Dodgers.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN’s standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher’s roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team’s win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B — 9%) at Austin Gomber

Matt Vierling (DET, CF — 1%) at Gomber

Ha-Seong Kim (SD, SS — 15%) at Graham Ashcraft

Elias Diaz (COL, C — 48%) vs. Michael Lorenzen

Javier Baez (DET, SS — 14%) at Gomber

Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B — 39%) vs. Lorenzen

Joc Pederson (SF, LF — 9%) at Carlos Carrasco

Yuli Gurriel (MIA, 1B — 2%) at Jared Shuster

Jurickson Profar (COL, LF — 9%) vs. Lorenzen

Jake Fraley (CIN, LF — 28%) vs. Yu Darvish

Josh Lowe (TB, RF — 62%) at Bryce Miller

Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B — 52%) at Justin Steele