Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday’s MLB games
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
By Todd Zola
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Only 28 teams are in action on Friday, with the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs having an off day following their Thursday night Field of Dreams matchup. The schedule begins at 6:40 PM ET with the Miami Marlins entertaining the Atlanta Braves. Jorge Lopez will pitch for the hosts. He is showing signs of fatigue as he’s already accrued over 20 IP more than last season. Now could be a good time to deal Lopez, especially in head-to-head formats. In terms of Miami bats, they are fanning at a league high 27.9% clip against southpaws. Most of those whiffs came before JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick and sometimes Billy Hamilton played versus lefties — and all three strike out more than 28% of the time, setting the stage for even more futile at-bats going forward.
Friday’s top streaming candidate is George Kirby (28% rostered in ESPN leagues). Once Kirby reitres two more batters, his 21.0% K-BB% will rank 17th among pitchers with at least 80 innings. On Friday, Kirby and the Seattle Mariners open a series in Arlington against a Texas Rangers lineup sitting with the fifth-lowest wOBA against right-handers. To be fair, they’ve been more productive over the past month, but their strikeouts have increased over that time frame.
The next best spot starters square off in what is, surprisingly, a key matchup of a pair of AL wild-card contenders. Corey Kluber (48%) and the Tampa Bay Rays welcome Austin Voth (2%) and the Baltimore Orioles to Tropicana Field for a weekend set. Kluber is clearly the more experienced pitcher, but it can be argued that Voth is currently pitching better than the two-time AL Cy Young award winner. Further, the Orioles offense against right-handers has produced at a higher clip than the Rays, although neither lineup is daunting. Kluber may be the brand name, but Voth is the better DFS play, especially in GPP action.
The only other series featuring two teams with playoff aspirations takes place in the Rogers Centre with the Cleveland Guardians heading north to challenge the Toronto Blue Jays. The home team will be shorthanded with George Springer on the IL, but at least Whit Merrifield is now able to cross the border. Plus, Toronto has added Jackie Bradley Jr. to shore up their defense. Jose Berrios will be working on a full week’s rest after his scheduled start on Wednesday was postponed. Berrios’ last outing was a poor effort against the Twins, but he has turned his season around, posting a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with 42 strikeouts in his last 36 innings prior that dud. Even so, the Guardians are a pesky bunch. So, while Berrios should be used in traditional fantasy formats, his strikeouts will likely be insufficient to deploy in DFS.
As usual, there are a bunch of batters available to help supplement a fantasy offense or to serve as cost-savers in DFS play. Vaughn Grissom (12%) opened his MLB career with a combo meal on Wednesday night, clearing the Green Monster for his first homer, then getting a great jump and swiping his first base. Grissom lacks the platoon edge on Friday, but his skill set is very fantasy friendly. Other hitters to target include Jake McCarthy (1%) and Seth Beer (1%) drawing Antonio Senzatela in Coors Field. MJ Melendez (27%) and Vinnie Pasquantino (7%) will face Tony Gonsolin, whose underlying metrics portend some regression. Paul DeJong (7%) has hit well since returning to the bigs. On Friday, he’ll enjoy the platoon edge on Eric Lauer. Lastly, Jose Miranda (42%) has been scorching the ball, with a chance to continue the trend against left-hander Patrick Sandoval.
It’s never too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN’s standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).
T: The pitcher’s handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher’s win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.
If a team is planning on using an “opener” to start their game, but will rely on a “bulk pitcher” to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF — 50%) vs. Zach Davies
Carson Kelly (ARI, C — 14%) at Senzatela
Brandon Belt (SF, 1B — 33%) vs. Bryse Wilson
Alek Thomas (ARI, CF — 9%) at Senzatela
Elehuris Montero (COL, 3B — 1%) vs. Davies
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS — 16%) vs. Davies
AJ Pollock (CHW, LF — 18%) vs. Daniel Norris
Tommy Pham (BOS, LF — 47%) vs. Domingo German
Isaac Paredes (TB, 2B — 17%) vs. Spenser Watkins
Danny Jansen (TOR, C — 5%) vs. Cal Quantrill
Rhys Hoskins (PHI, 1B — 93%) at Max Scherzer
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF — 96%) at Scherzer
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C — 99%) at Scherzer
Jean Segura (PHI, 2B — 69%) at Scherzer
Kolten Wong (MIL, 2B — 67%) at Jordan Montgomery
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF — 94%) at Carlos Rodon
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B — 53%) at Montgomery
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL, C — 67%) at Lopez
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B — 90%) vs. Ranger Suarez
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF — 85%) vs. Kirby